TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 28, 4:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of a major stock market index on a specific date, dividing possible outcomes into narrow, sequential ranges to allow detailed speculation on where the index might close. Each range represents a distinct outcome based on the index's final value at the close of trading.
Each market resolves based on the end-of-day value of the S&P 500 index on August 28, 2026, falling within one of several predefined numerical ranges. If the index closes within a specific range, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; all others resolve to No. Markets close on August 28, 2026, and expiration occurs at the sooner of the first official data release or one week after the close date. All markets adhere to modified source agency and underlying rules for indices as specified in the Kalshi Rulebook.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds offer a real-time aggregate of trader expectations and betting behavior. While analysts may publish target levels or ranges based on models, this market reflects crowd-sourced probability weights that can react instantly to news, earnings reports, or macro data. The contrast can highlight where professional sentiment diverges from broader market participation.
This market resolves around Aug 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will see the final result posted automatically after the market close, based on the closing value of the index against publicly available sources. No manual intervention is required — the system handles the verification process.
Key signals that could shift this market include major U.S. economic data releases, Federal Reserve policy decisions, unexpected corporate earnings surprises, geopolitical developments, or broad market volatility events. Any development that influences investor sentiment toward the S&P index may cause rapid re-pricing. Traders will also watch for large institutional positioning or shifts in futures markets that often precede changes in this market.