TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on May 29?
polymarket

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on May 29?

Volume:
$111,681

$755

 - Polymarket

$755 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved May 29, 2026

Closed: May 29, 4:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$755

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$83,189
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$750

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,055
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$745

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,001
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$725

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,675
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$740

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,620
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$730

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,610
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$735

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,320
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$760

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,381
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$765

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,952
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$770

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,848
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$775

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,030
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the S&P 500 exchange-traded fund SPY will close above $725 on May 29, 2026. On Polymarket, the leading outcome carries a probability of 99.0%. Resolution will be determined by the closing price data from Pyth Network's equity feed for SPY/USD. Watch for market movements and economic data releases leading up to May 29, 2026, as these factors will influence whether SPY reaches and maintains the $725 threshold at market close.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader conviction and often diverge from traditional analyst price targets. While Wall Street equity strategists publish year-end or quarterly SPY forecasts based on earnings models and macro scenarios, prediction markets price in live, crowd-sourced expectations updated continuously through May 29. Comparing the implied probability from Polymarket odds to consensus analyst targets can reveal whether traders expect more bullish or bearish outcomes than the Street's formal guidance.

The market resolves on May 29, 2026, immediately after the close of regular U.S. equity trading on May 29. Resolution is determined by the official closing price of the SPY ETF on that date. Winning positions are those that correctly predicted whether SPY would close above or below the specified strike price. Payouts are distributed shortly after the outcome is confirmed and the market settles on Polymarket.

Key catalysts include Federal Reserve policy announcements, inflation and employment data, corporate earnings reports, and geopolitical developments. Tech earnings in late May often drive SPY volatility, as the index is heavily weighted toward large-cap technology stocks. Unexpected economic data, central bank guidance shifts, or market-moving news can rapidly reprrice trader expectations for the May 29 close. Technical support and resistance levels, options expiration dynamics, and broader risk sentiment also influence intraday and weekly SPY movements leading into resolution.