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S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on July 13?
kalshi
polymarket

Will S&P 500 (SPY) close above a certain level on July 13, 2026?

Volume:
$512,034

7,510 or above

 - Kalshi

7,510 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 13, 2026

Closed: Jul 13, 4:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

7,510 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$15,845
N/A
N/A
$8,481
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,515 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$14,312
N/A
N/A
$6,777
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$745

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$11,900
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,480 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,761
N/A
N/A
$3,224
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,375
N/A
N/A
$7,014
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,505 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,381
N/A
N/A
$4,486
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$735

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,670
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,495 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,324
N/A
N/A
$5,111
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,455 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,353
N/A
N/A
$2,353
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$740

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,520
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,465 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,326
N/A
N/A
$1,326
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,490 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$859
N/A
N/A
$736
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,485 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$576
N/A
N/A
$507
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$730

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$484
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,450 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$468
N/A
N/A
$468
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,375 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$193
N/A
N/A
$193
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,470 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$135
N/A
N/A
$135
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,475 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$120
N/A
N/A
$120
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$725

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$120
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,460 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$73
N/A
N/A
$63
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,385 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$31
N/A
N/A
$31
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,525 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$89,939
N/A
N/A
$80,713
Settled
No
kalshi

7,520 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$55,063
N/A
N/A
$18,503
Settled
No
kalshi

7,545 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$54,363
N/A
N/A
$46,474
Settled
No
polymarket

$750

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$38,366
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 71

Description

This event group tracks whether the S&P 500 (SPY) will close above various price thresholds on July 13, 2026. Polymarket uses SPY ETF closing prices from Pyth data, while Kalshi uses the S&P 500 index value at 4pm EDT. The markets span multiple strike prices to create a ladder of binary outcomes.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket resolves on SPY ETF closing price from Pyth data source, while Kalshi resolves on S&P 500 index value at 4pm EDT. These are different instruments with different price levels and data sources, creating settlement value mismatch.Hero tip: SPY and the S&P 500 index are correlated but not identical. SPY typically trades at approximately 1/10th the index level. Confirm which instrument you are trading on each platform and verify the actual settlement values independently on July 13, 2026. Polymarket provides more detailed fallback logic for data unavailability.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves YES if SPY close price (Pyth 1-minute candle at end of regular trading) is strictly above threshold. Exact equality resolves NO. Primary source is Pyth; fallback to official exchange closing price if Pyth unavailable. Stock splits trigger proportional target price adjustment. If no valid Pyth data for that trading day, resolves 50-50.
  • Kalshi: Resolves YES if S&P 500 index value at 4pm EDT is above threshold (e.g., above 7374.9999). Uses index value, not ETF price. No explicit data source fallback hierarchy or corporate action adjustment language provided.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on July 13?

Kalshi

The S&P 500 price event consists of multiple binary markets, each corresponding to a specific price threshold. Each market resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 index value on July 13, 2026 at 4pm EDT closes above its designated threshold (with thresholds ranging from 7,375 to 7,670 in 5-point increments). All markets in this event close on July 13, 2026 and expire at the sooner of the first release of the data or one week after July 13, 2026. Per the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets. Traders can use these tiered markets to express granular views on the S&P 500's closing level, with each threshold representing a distinct outcome.

Frequently asked questions

The SPY July 13 price target market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi on whether the S&P 500 will close above a specified price level on July 13, 2026. This market reflects real-time consensus from thousands of participants betting on intraday equity performance. By tracking both venues, you gain insight into how different prediction market communities assess near-term stock index direction. The combined volume and odds across platforms reveal whether institutional and retail traders expect bullish or bearish momentum heading into that date.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst price targets because they reflect live, incentivized betting rather than periodic research reports. Traders on this market stake real capital on outcomes, creating continuous price discovery that can react faster to breaking news, earnings surprises, or macroeconomic shifts. Analysts typically publish forecasts quarterly or annually, whereas prediction markets update second-by-second. This makes them complementary signals: use analyst consensus for fundamental reasoning and market odds for real-time sentiment and tail-risk pricing.

Polymarket and Kalshi may quote different odds on the same event due to variations in user base, liquidity depth, and fee structures. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform's order book reflects its own trader demographics and risk appetite, so one venue may price in more upside or downside than the other. Arbitrage traders exploit these gaps, but temporary spreads persist because of withdrawal delays, platform-specific rules, or regional user concentration. Comparing both venues helps you identify which pricing is more reliable based on volume and participant sophistication.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy announcements, inflation or employment data, corporate earnings surprises, and geopolitical developments. Unexpected economic weakness or strength can shift equity valuations overnight, causing sharp repricing across prediction markets. Sector rotations—such as a sudden tech selloff or financial rally—also influence broad index direction. Additionally, volatility spikes or credit market stress can trigger risk-off behavior, pushing traders to reassess their positions on this market in real time.