TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on April 20?
Volume:
$228,482
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on April 20?
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All Polymarket questions in this group use identical resolution logic based on Pyth Close price data for SPY on April 20, 2026, with consistent handling of data failures and corporate actions. Kalshi has no conflicting rules published.
Primary resolution logic:
Pyth Network Close price for SPY/USD 1-minute candle at end of regular trading hours on April 20, 2026, or fallback to primary exchange official closing price if Pyth data unavailable.Core resolution logic:
- Market resolves YES if SPY Close price on April 20, 2026 is strictly greater than the specified threshold price.
- Market resolves NO if SPY Close price is equal to or less than the specified threshold price.
- If exact equality occurs, the market resolves NO.
- All 13 markets in this group are independent binary events; multiple markets may resolve YES if SPY closes above multiple thresholds.
- Closing price is determined by Pyth Close value of the final 1-minute candle of regular trading hours; if unavailable, the last valid Pyth price during regular hours is used; if no Pyth data exists, official exchange closing price is used.
- In the event of stock splits or reverse splits, the threshold price is adjusted proportionally and resolution uses split-adjusted prices from Pyth.
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- No Trading Activity: If SPY does not trade at all during the regular session on April 20, 2026, the market resolves 50-50.
- Data Source Hierarchy: Pyth Close is primary; if unavailable, last valid Pyth price during regular hours is used; if no Pyth data exists due to outage or system failure, official primary exchange closing price is used as fallback.
- Corporate Actions: If a stock split, reverse split, or similar corporate action occurs between market creation and April 20, 2026, the threshold price is adjusted proportionally and resolution uses split-adjusted historical prices from Pyth.
Timing:
Resolution occurs at the end of regular trading hours on April 20, 2026, based on the Close price published by Pyth for that date.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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