S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 14? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 14?
Start: 2026-09-11T12:00:56.000Z
End: 2026-09-14T20:00:00.000Z

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, September 14, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, September 14, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, September 14, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, September 14, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Frequently asked questions

This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of the S&P 500 index on September 14 will determine whether the 'up' or 'down' outcome is declared the winner. The resolution will be based on widely recognized financial data sources, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the result. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future markets.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before September 14. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, could shift investor sentiment. Unexpected geopolitical events or corporate earnings surprises could also trigger price movements. Furthermore, any significant news regarding Federal Reserve policy or interest rate expectations would likely influence trading activity. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding how the probabilities in this market evolve as we approach the resolution date.

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