TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 26?
polymarket
kalshi

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 26?

Volume:
$484,451

6,475 or above

 - Kalshi

6,475 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Closed: Mar 26, 7:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

6,475 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$27,147
N/A
N/A
$7,888
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,450 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,050
N/A
N/A
$2,790
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,425 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,373
N/A
N/A
$2,368
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,200 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$773
N/A
N/A
$763
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,300 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$240
N/A
N/A
$240
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,150 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$96
N/A
N/A
$96
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,400 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$14
N/A
N/A
$14
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,275 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,225 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,250 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 26?

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$137,912
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,575 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$107,325
N/A
N/A
$103,285
Settled
No
kalshi

6,550 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$78,113
N/A
N/A
$48,690
Settled
No
kalshi

6,500 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$75,618
N/A
N/A
$62,193
Settled
No
kalshi

6,525 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$42,524
N/A
N/A
$38,908
Settled
No
kalshi

6,600 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,554
N/A
N/A
$2,556
Settled
No
kalshi

6,650 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,772
N/A
N/A
$3,702
Settled
No
kalshi

6,675 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$268
N/A
N/A
$247
Settled
No
kalshi

6,700 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$254
N/A
N/A
$254
Settled
No
kalshi

6,625 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$252
N/A
N/A
$233
Settled
No
kalshi

6,975 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$96
N/A
N/A
$96
Settled
No
kalshi

6,725 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
$18
Settled
No
kalshi

6,900 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
No
kalshi

6,875 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
No
kalshi

6,925 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, March 26, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, March 26, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket resolves on directional price movement (Up/Down vs. prior trading day close), while Kalshi resolves on absolute index level thresholds (50 different price points). These are fundamentally different settlement mechanisms that will produce divergent outcomes for the same underlying event.Hero tip: If you trade this market, understand that Polymarket bets on direction relative to March 25 close, while Kalshi bets on whether SPX ends above specific absolute levels. A market that is 'Up' on Polymarket (higher than March 25) could resolve YES or NO on Kalshi depending on which of the 50 thresholds apply. Arbitrage risk is extreme: the same March 26 closing price will settle differently on each platform.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Distinct stance: Resolves based on directional comparison—YES if March 26 SPX close is higher than the most recent prior trading day close (typically March 25), NO if lower, 50-50 if equal. Source is Wall Street Journal Historical Prices Close values. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, March 26, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.'
  • Kalshi: Distinct stance: Resolves YES if end-of-day SPX on March 26, 2026 is above any of 50 different absolute price thresholds (ranging from 5799.9999 to 7274.9999). No directional comparison; no reference to prior close. All 50 conditions resolve to YES independently. Quote: 'If the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on March 26, 2026 is above 6524.9999, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.