TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$87,176,691

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,391,958,194

394,660

Markets across

30,119

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,626

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA

Science and Technology

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 23?

polymarket

kalshi

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 23?

Volume:

$742,932

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 23?

- Polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 23? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 24, 2026

Closed: Mar 23, 4:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 23?

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$481,393

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,575 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$13,740

N/A

N/A

$6,048

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,500 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$11,196

N/A

N/A

$6,100

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,550 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$10,914

N/A

N/A

$3,436

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,525 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$8,180

N/A

N/A

$4,518

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,475 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$5,394

N/A

N/A

$3,571

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,400 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$3,867

N/A

N/A

$1,929

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,450 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$3,667

N/A

N/A

$1,325

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,250 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$2,021

N/A

N/A

$1,777

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,200 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1,301

N/A

N/A

$877

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,375 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1,258

N/A

N/A

$860

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,000 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$762

N/A

N/A

$762

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,300 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$444

N/A

N/A

$433

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,175 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$322

N/A

N/A

$322

Settled

Yes

kalshi

5,875 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$302

N/A

N/A

$302

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,150 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$302

N/A

N/A

$302

Settled

Yes

kalshi

5,925 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$261

N/A

N/A

$261

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,275 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$226

N/A

N/A

$225

Settled

Yes

kalshi

5,900 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$225

N/A

N/A

$225

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,125 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$222

N/A

N/A

$222

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,100 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$222

N/A

N/A

$222

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,425 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$208

N/A

N/A

$136

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,350 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$200

N/A

N/A

$200

Settled

Yes

kalshi

6,325 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$111

N/A

N/A

$111

Settled

Yes

kalshi

5,950 or above

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$109

N/A

N/A

$109

Settled

Yes

Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, March 23, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, March 23, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks. Polymarket resolves based on directional price movement (Up/Down vs. prior trading day), while Kalshi contains 60 separate binary markets each tied to specific absolute price thresholds, creating a logical contradiction where Kalshi's conditions are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive in ways that cannot align with a single directional outcome.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets will settle identically. On Polymarket, you are betting on directional movement relative to March 22, 2026. On Kalshi, you are betting on whether SPX closes above specific absolute levels (ranging from 5849.9999 to 7324.9999). A single SPX close value will resolve Polymarket to one outcome (Up, Down, or 50-50) but will resolve ALL 60 Kalshi markets simultaneously based on threshold crossing. Arbitrage or hedge accordingly.

Critical divergence points:

Polymarket: Distinct stance: Resolves based on directional comparison between March 23, 2026 closing price and the most recent prior trading day closing price. 'This market will resolve to Up if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, March 23, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.'
Kalshi: Distinct stance: Resolves 60 separate binary outcomes, each tied to whether the end-of-day SPX value on March 23, 2026 exceeds a specific absolute threshold (e.g., 5874.9999, 6974.9999, 7324.9999). 'If the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on March 23, 2026 is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.'

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.