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S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 13?
kalshi
polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 13?

Volume:
$249,592

7,520 or above

 - Kalshi

7,520 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 13, 2026

Closed: Jul 13, 3:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

7,520 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,247
N/A
N/A
$3,788
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,515 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,337
N/A
N/A
$1,416
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$652
N/A
N/A
$575
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,510 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$443
N/A
N/A
$378
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,505 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$190
N/A
N/A
$178
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,495 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$154
N/A
N/A
$93
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,485 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$87
N/A
N/A
$87
Settled
Yes
polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 13?

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$180,636
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,525 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16,757
N/A
N/A
$4,538
Settled
No
kalshi

7,530 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,218
N/A
N/A
$7,278
Settled
No
kalshi

7,635 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,843
N/A
N/A
$5,843
Settled
No
kalshi

7,535 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,840
N/A
N/A
$3,936
Settled
No
kalshi

7,540 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,525
N/A
N/A
$3,878
Settled
No
kalshi

7,640 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,140
N/A
N/A
$4,140
Settled
No
kalshi

7,645 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,466
N/A
N/A
$2,466
Settled
No
kalshi

7,550 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,077
N/A
N/A
$973
Settled
No
kalshi

7,545 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$799
N/A
N/A
$794
Settled
No
kalshi

7,555 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$615
N/A
N/A
$519
Settled
No
kalshi

7,565 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$288
N/A
N/A
$208
Settled
No
kalshi

7,620 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$242
N/A
N/A
$242
Settled
No
kalshi

7,560 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$240
N/A
N/A
$240
Settled
No
kalshi

7,625 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$172
N/A
N/A
$172
Settled
No
kalshi

7,575 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$147
N/A
N/A
$133
Settled
No
kalshi

7,605 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$126
N/A
N/A
$126
Settled
No
kalshi

7,580 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$53
N/A
N/A
$53
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This event group tracks whether the S&P 500 Index closes higher or lower on Monday, July 13, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket frames this as a directional up/down comparison, while Kalshi offers granular price-level brackets at a specific intraday timestamp (3pm EDT).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi measure fundamentally different settlement points: Polymarket uses official end-of-day closing price versus prior trading day close (directional), while Kalshi uses intraday index value at exactly 3pm EDT against fixed price thresholds. This creates non-overlapping resolution logic.Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets with different risk profiles. Polymarket rewards day-over-day momentum; Kalshi rewards specific intraday price levels. Market conditions at 3pm EDT may differ sharply from final close. Monitor both timestamps independently and do not assume correlation.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Directional comparison market. Resolves YES (Up) if July 13 official closing price exceeds most recent prior trading day close; NO (Down) if lower. Resolves 50-50 on tie, no session trade, or trading halt into close. Source: WSJ Historical Prices. Key Quote: 'official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, July 13, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.'
  • Kalshi: Intraday price-level bracket market. 60 separate YES/NO outcomes, each resolving YES if SPX index value at 3pm EDT on July 13, 2026 exceeds a specific threshold (ranging 7374.9999 to 7629.9999 in 5-point increments). No tie-breaking or edge case rules disclosed. Key Quote: 'If the S&P 500 index value on Jul 13, 2026 at 3pm EDT is above 7374.9999, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, July 13, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, July 13, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Kalshi

This event comprises multiple price-level markets for the S&P 500 index on July 13, 2026 at 3pm EDT. Each market resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 index value at the specified time exceeds a particular threshold (ranging from 7,374.9999 to 7,669.9999 across the various markets). All markets close on July 13, 2026 and expire at the sooner of the first release of the data or one week after July 13, 2026. The resolution is based on the official S&P 500 index value as determined under the Kalshi Rulebook's modified rules for indices markets regarding Source Agency and Underlying.

Frequently asked questions

The S&P 500 daily direction market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi on whether the index will close higher or lower on July 13, 2026. This market captures real-time consensus on near-term equity market momentum, with traders on each platform pricing their conviction independently. The dashboard displays current odds, historical volume trends, and cross-platform comparison data, allowing participants to monitor how sentiment shifts as new economic data or corporate earnings emerge. Together, these venues represent a distributed forecast of intraday market direction for one of the world's most widely followed stock indices.

Prediction markets like this one differ fundamentally from traditional analyst forecasts. Rather than relying on a small group of experts, these venues aggregate the financial incentives of thousands of traders who profit or lose based on accuracy. Participants continuously update their positions as new information arrives, creating a dynamic, real-time probability estimate. Analyst price targets and earnings revisions typically update less frequently and reflect institutional consensus rather than marginal trader conviction. Many academic studies show prediction market odds often outperform analyst consensus on short-term directional calls, particularly for events with clear, verifiable outcomes like daily index movement.

Federal Reserve communications, inflation data, and corporate earnings announcements are primary catalysts that could shift odds significantly. Geopolitical developments, employment reports, or unexpected central bank policy shifts often trigger sharp repricing across equity markets and this prediction market alike. Sector-specific news—such as technology earnings surprises or energy price swings—can drive index-level momentum. Traders also watch overnight international market performance and pre-market futures trading for directional clues. As July 13 approaches, intraday technical levels and options expiration dynamics may amplify volatility, creating last-minute trading opportunities for participants monitoring real-time price action.