TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 9, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on June 9 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on June 9 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
The market resolves on Jun 9, 2026, immediately after the S&P 500 opens for regular trading on June 9, 2026. Resolution is determined by comparing the opening price to the previous trading day's close. If the index opens above the prior close, the up outcome wins; if below, the down outcome wins. This is a straightforward, objective settlement based on publicly available market data with no ambiguity, ensuring rapid resolution once the opening bell rings and official prices are published.
Overnight developments heavily influence this market. Asian and European equity performance, particularly in early June, set the tone for U.S. pre-market sentiment. Economic data releases—jobs reports, inflation figures, or central bank decisions—can trigger sharp reversals. Earnings surprises from major index constituents, geopolitical shocks, or Fed communications also drive positioning. Futures markets and VIX movements overnight provide real-time signals that traders monitor before the open. Currency fluctuations and commodity price swings, especially oil, can shift risk appetite and determine whether large-cap equities gap up or down at the bell.