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S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 26?
polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 26?

Volume:
$19,842

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 26?

 - Polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 26? - Polymarket

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Resolved Jun 26, 2026

Closed: Jun 26, 4:00 PM EST

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S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 26?

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0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,842
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on June 26 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on June 26 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on June 26 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on June 26 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the S&P 500 opening direction market dashboard tracks real-time odds on whether the index will open higher or lower on June 26. Traders buy and sell shares representing each outcome, with the current price reflecting the collective forecast of market participants. The dashboard displays live odds, historical price movement, and trading volume, giving you a transparent view of how confident traders are in an up or down open. This snapshot helps investors gauge market sentiment ahead of the opening bell.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-money bets rather than survey opinions. Traders in this market have direct financial incentive to price the outcome accurately, which can make odds more responsive to breaking news and shifting sentiment than consensus analyst calls. However, both approaches reflect uncertainty about the same underlying event. Comparing this market's odds to published analyst commentary on near-term market direction can highlight where professional and crowd-sourced views align or diverge most sharply.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds by buying and selling outcome shares in an automated market maker. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share represents a claim on one outcome—up or down—and the price of each share at any moment reflects the probability traders assign to that result. As new information emerges or sentiment shifts, traders adjust their positions, moving the odds in real time. This continuous price discovery mechanism ensures the market reflects the latest available information about how the S&P 500 will open.

This market resolves around Jun 26, 2026, once the opening direction of the S&P 500 on that date is confirmed. The outcome is determined by whether the index closes its opening print above or below the previous day's close, verified against credible public sources such as major financial data providers. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome receive their payout once the result is official and the market settles. The resolution is straightforward and based on observable market data available immediately after the opening.

Overnight economic data, Federal Reserve communications, earnings surprises, and geopolitical developments can all shift odds in this market before the June 26 open. Futures trading in Asia and Europe often signal directional bias ahead of the U.S. open, and traders monitor those moves closely. Unexpected inflation reports, jobs data, or central bank policy shifts can trigger sharp repricing. Additionally, sector-specific news—such as tech earnings or energy price swings—may influence broad index sentiment. Traders watch pre-market sentiment and international market performance as leading indicators of opening direction.