TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 2, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on June 2 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on June 2 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
On Polymarket, this event is priced as a binary contract where traders buy or sell shares representing an up or down open on June 2. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Share prices range from $0 to $1, with the price directly reflecting the implied probability of each outcome. Traders profit by buying undervalued outcomes or selling overvalued ones. Liquidity and trading volume on Polymarket determine how efficiently prices adjust to new information about overnight futures, pre-market sentiment, and macroeconomic releases.
The market resolves on Jun 2, 2026, immediately after the S&P 500 opens for regular trading on June 2, 2026. The outcome is determined by comparing the opening price to the previous trading day's close. If the index opens above the prior close, the up outcome wins; if it opens below, the down outcome wins. Resolution is typically finalized within minutes of market open, allowing traders to see results in real time.
Overnight developments heavily influence this market, including Asian and European equity performance, economic data releases, central bank announcements, and geopolitical news. U.S. futures trading in the evening and early morning hours signal trader positioning ahead of the open. Corporate earnings surprises, Fed commentary, inflation data, or employment reports released before market open can shift sentiment sharply. Pre-market movers and sector rotation also impact the probability of an up or down open on June 2.