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S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17?
polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17?

Volume:
$54,194

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17?

 - Polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? - Polymarket

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Resolved Jun 17, 2026

Closed: Jun 17, 4:00 PM EST

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S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17?

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100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$54,194
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on June 17 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on June 17 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on June 17 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on June 17 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the S&P 500 opening direction market dashboard tracks real-time odds on whether the index will open higher or lower on June 17. Traders buy and sell shares representing each outcome, and the current price of each contract reflects the collective probability assigned by the market. The dashboard displays live price movements, historical price charts, and trading volume data, giving you a transparent view of how sentiment around the opening direction has evolved. This lets you monitor shifts in trader conviction as new information emerges.

Prediction market odds and traditional analyst forecasts often diverge because they operate on different incentives. Analysts publish directional views based on fundamental research and models, while prediction market traders stake real capital on outcomes, creating a financial penalty for inaccuracy. This market aggregates the views of many traders with skin in the game, sometimes revealing consensus that differs from published analyst sentiment. Comparing the two can highlight where professional opinion and market-implied probability align or conflict, offering a richer picture of near-term expectations.

On Polymarket, traders set prices through an automated market maker mechanism where buying one outcome automatically adjusts the price of the other. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each contract trades between 0 and 1, with the price representing the implied probability of that outcome occurring. Higher trading volume typically narrows the spread between bid and ask prices, making execution more efficient. The continuous pricing model means odds update in real time as new trades occur, reflecting the latest information and sentiment among active traders.

This market resolves around Jun 17, 2026, once the S&P 500's opening price for June 17 is confirmed. The outcome is determined by whether the index opens above or below its previous close, verified against credible public financial data sources. Resolution happens automatically once the opening bell has passed and official pricing is published. Traders holding the winning outcome receive their payout, while losing positions expire worthless.

Several catalysts can shift odds in this market before the opening bell. Overnight economic data releases, central bank announcements, or geopolitical developments can reshape expectations for market direction. Earnings surprises, changes in interest rate expectations, and movements in futures markets during extended trading hours all influence how traders position ahead of the open. Volatility in other asset classes—bonds, commodities, or currencies—can also ripple through equity sentiment. Close monitoring of pre-market futures and overnight news flow helps traders anticipate directional shifts.