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S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11?
polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11?

Volume:
$90,004

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11?

 - Polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? - Polymarket

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Resolved Jun 11, 2026

Closed: Jun 11, 4:00 PM EST

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S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$90,004
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on June 11 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on June 11 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on June 11 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on June 11 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader conviction and often diverge from traditional analyst sentiment. While equity strategists may issue broad market outlooks, prediction markets isolate a specific catalyst—the open direction on a single day—creating a more granular signal. Comparing market-implied probabilities to consensus analyst views can reveal whether traders are pricing in overnight developments or geopolitical events that analysts have not yet fully incorporated into their guidance.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this event is priced as a binary contract where traders buy and sell shares representing an up or down open. The price of each outcome reflects the collective probability estimate of market participants. As new information emerges—earnings reports, Fed communications, or geopolitical developments—traders adjust positions, moving prices in real time. The outcome resolves based on the official SPX opening level on June 11, 2026.

The market resolves at Jun 11, 2026. Resolution is determined by comparing the S&P 500's opening price on June 11, 2026 to its previous close. If the index opens above the prior close, the up outcome wins; if it opens below, the down outcome wins. This binary structure makes the event straightforward to verify and settle, eliminating ambiguity around the determining factor.

Key catalysts include overnight earnings announcements, Federal Reserve communications, inflation data, geopolitical developments, and movements in Asian and European markets. Futures trading and pre-market activity often signal directional bias before the official open. Economic surprises, central bank policy shifts, or corporate guidance can shift trader positioning significantly. Volatility in commodities, bond yields, or currency markets may also influence sentiment heading into the June 11 open, moving prediction market odds in real time.