TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.4b

24H VOL:

$104,871,197

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,592,701,755

469,827

Markets across

35,657

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,899

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

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Southwest Airlines average passenger fare in fiscal 2026
kalshi

Southwest Airlines average passenger fare in fiscal 2026

Jul 28, 2026, 2:45 PM EST - May 27, 2027, 1:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$13,184
Volume 24h:
$80
95%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$6,186
0.02%

Above $210

 - Kalshi

Above $210 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves May 27, 2027

Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $210 average passenger fare in fiscal 2026?

98%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 98% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 2% 224 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $210

Trade
98%
Yes 99¢No 2¢
1¢
N/A
$309
0%
0%
$155
7mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above $215

Trade
97%
Yes 98¢No 3¢
1¢
N/A
$589
0%
20%
$300
7mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above $220

Trade
95%
6%
Yes 92¢No 9¢
1¢
N/A
$3,264
0.03%
0.12%
$1,510
7mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above $205

Trade
95%
Yes 99¢No 2¢
1¢
N/A
$224
0%
0%
$168
7mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above $225

Trade
85%
Yes 85¢No 16¢
1¢
N/A
$3,939
0.03%
0.03%
$1,827
7mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above $230

Trade
45%
Yes 45¢No 57¢
2¢
N/A
$2,912
0%
106%
$1,677
7mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above $235

Trade
12%
1%
Yes 14¢No 89¢
3¢
N/A
$1,947
4%
467%
$549
7mo 2w
active
Total markets: 7

Description

Southwest Airlines Company will announce its average passenger fare for the fiscal year 2026. The fare will be assessed against multiple levels to establish the outcome.

Kalshi

These markets resolve based on the annual average passenger fare reported by Southwest Airlines Company in their full fiscal year or Q4 earnings release for 2026. Each market has a specific threshold (ranging from Above $205 to Above $235). If the reported average fare exceeds the respective threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets refer to the same annual figure, making the outcomes interdependent.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, this market reflects a different outlook than many analyst forecasts. While some Wall Street estimates project modest fare increases, trading odds imply a more pronounced change in Southwest's average ticket price over the next fiscal year. The gap highlights how market participants weigh operational factors and fuel-cost trends differently than traditional research houses.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders actively set prices based on their forecasts for Southwest's average passenger fare in fiscal 2026. The current probability reflects the collective wisdom of participants, with price movements driven by new earnings reports, fuel cost changes, or shifts in travel demand that could influence fare levels.

This market resolves around May 27, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Southwest's officially reported average passenger fare for fiscal 2026 will settle the contract, based on data released in the company's annual financial statements or regulatory filings.

Several signals could shift this market before May 27, 2027. Key catalysts include Southwest Airlines' quarterly earnings releases, changes in fuel prices, regulatory announcements affecting airline pricing power, and broader economic indicators like inflation or consumer spending trends. Any unexpected events impacting travel demand or operational costs may also cause rapid repricing.