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404,028

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South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?
polymarket

South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?

Volume:
$58,037

3.5–3.9%

 - Polymarket

3.5–3.9% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 23, 2026

Closed: Jul 22, 9:07 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

3.5–3.9%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10,847
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

3.0–3.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,320
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2.5–2.9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,650
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

4.0–4.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,983
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

4.5%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,438
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1.5–1.9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,379
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<1.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,535
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2.0–2.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,884
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 8

Intro

This market tracks whether South Korea's year-on-year real GDP growth will fall between 4.0% and 4.4% in the second quarter of 2026. On Polymarket, the leading outcome currently stands at 91.4%. Resolution will be determined by the Bank of Korea's official Real Gross Domestic Product Advance Estimate release, which reports growth rates to one decimal point precision. Watch for the Bank of Korea's Q2 2026 GDP release scheduled for July 23, 2026, which will provide the definitive figure for settlement.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10 The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01

Frequently asked questions

The PredictionHero dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for South Korea's year-over-year GDP growth in the second quarter of 2026 on Polymarket. The interface displays the current probability of each outcome, historical price movements, and live order flow. With total group volume of $58,037, this market reflects ongoing trader conviction about South Korea's economic trajectory. The dashboard updates continuously to show how market participants are positioning ahead of the official Q2 2026 GDP release, helping you monitor shifting expectations around Korean economic performance.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket offer a real-time, crowd-sourced alternative to traditional analyst consensus forecasts for South Korea's Q2 2026 GDP growth. While economists typically publish point estimates and ranges based on structural models and leading indicators, prediction markets aggregate the collective beliefs of traders with financial incentives to forecast accurately. Market odds reflect both consensus expectations and tail risks that analysts may underweight. Comparing the top outcome probability on Polymarket against consensus economist surveys reveals whether traders are more bullish, bearish, or aligned with professional forecasters on Korean growth prospects.

The South Korea GDP growth market resolves on Jul 23, 2026, aligned with the official release of Q2 2026 GDP data by South Korea's statistical authority. Resolution hinges on the reported year-over-year growth rate for the second quarter, which will be matched against the predefined outcome ranges offered in the market. Traders should monitor the exact release schedule and any preliminary versus final data announcements, as these timings affect when the market settles and payouts are distributed.

South Korea's Q2 2026 GDP growth odds will likely shift in response to quarterly earnings reports, manufacturing and services PMI data, semiconductor export trends, and central bank policy decisions. Global demand shocks—particularly from China and the United States—directly influence Korean exports and investment. Domestic consumption patterns, labor market strength, and inflation dynamics also matter. Geopolitical tensions on the peninsula, currency movements, and revisions to earlier-quarter GDP figures can trigger repricing. Real-time economic releases, forward guidance from the Bank of Korea, and international trade developments will be key catalysts moving market odds toward resolution.