TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Larry Rhoden, ≥40%
- Kalshi
Larry Rhoden, ≥40% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 6, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 6, 8:29 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks how much more support one major candidate receives compared to their closest rival in a key primary election. The outcome depends on the size of the vote difference between the top two finishers, reflecting the competitiveness of the race.
Kalshi
All markets assess whether Larry Rhoden's victory margin in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff falls within specified percentage ranges, from 10% up to 50%, each inclusive of the lower bound and exclusive of the upper bound. The margin of victory is calculated as the difference in vote share between Larry Rhoden and the candidate finishing immediately behind him if Rhoden wins, or the difference between the first-place candidate and Rhoden if he loses. A tie results in a zero margin. No rounding is applied to the margin, and votes for the same candidate across multiple party listings are summed. Markets with higher percentage thresholds represent larger victory margins, with all markets resolving to Yes only if Rhoden's margin meets or exceeds the specified lower bound but remains below the next threshold's lower bound.
Frequently asked questions
This market resolves around Jul 28, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final margin of victory will be calculated from official election results, and this market will close based on those numbers. Timing aligns with the certification of the runoff election results, ensuring an accurate and transparent resolution process.
Several signals could influence this market before it settles on Jul 28, 2027. Key catalysts include public polling updates, debate performance, endorsements, and any major news affecting candidate viability. Economic announcements or state-specific issues may also shift trader sentiment. As the election approaches, volatility often increases with each new development. Traders will watch for any shifts in voter sentiment or campaign momentum, all of which can cause rapid price adjustments in the final weeks.
