TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Larry Rhoden, ≥12%
- Kalshi
Larry Rhoden, ≥12% - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 6, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 6, 8:27 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This market tracks the margin of victory in a 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff election between two candidates. The outcome will be determined by the final vote differential between the winner and runner-up, regardless of which candidate prevails.
Kalshi
The margin of victory is calculated as the vote percentage or raw vote count of the winning candidate minus that of the losing candidate. For tied first place, the margin is zero. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, with no rounding applied. If a candidate runs under multiple parties or appears multiple times, votes are summed. For uncontested races, the margin is 100 percentage points or total votes cast. Exact margin boundaries follow strict mathematical precision—for example, 5.99999% falls in the 5-6% range while exactly 6% falls in the 6-7% range.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect aggregated trader expectations and often diverge from traditional polling or analyst models. While polls measure voter sentiment at a single point in time, prediction markets incorporate real-money incentives, late-breaking campaign developments, and dynamic information flow. Comparing Kalshi implied probabilities to published forecasts from political analysts or media outlets can reveal where the market is pricing in different assumptions about turnout, candidate momentum, or regional dynamics in the South Dakota Republican runoff.
On Kalshi, the South Dakota Republican Governor runoff margin is priced as a binary or range-based contract reflecting the expected victory margin between the two leading Republican candidates. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, with the price representing the market's consensus probability of that outcome occurring. As new information emerges—campaign announcements, debate performance, or internal polling leaks—Kalshi prices adjust in real time, allowing traders to profit from shifts in perceived likelihood before the runoff concludes on Jul 28, 2027.
The South Dakota Republican Governor runoff margin market resolves on Jul 28, 2027. Resolution is determined by the official final vote tally and margin of victory announced by South Dakota election authorities following the runoff election. The market will settle based on the actual percentage-point or vote-count margin separating the top two Republican candidates, with outcomes typically defined by predefined brackets or thresholds established at market creation.
Key catalysts include campaign endorsements from prominent South Dakota Republicans, debate performances between the two runoff candidates, internal or public polling releases, voter turnout patterns in early voting, and last-minute campaign spending or advertising blitzes. National Republican Party involvement, candidate gaffes or controversies, and shifts in voter enthusiasm could also reshape the margin. Local economic news, agricultural policy announcements, or unexpected candidate statements may sway rural or urban voter blocs, causing Kalshi prices to reprice ahead of the Jul 28, 2027 resolution.
