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516,586

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South Dakota corn yield in 2026
kalshi

What will South Dakota's corn yield be in 2026?

Aug 18, 2026, 12:00 PM EST - Feb 7, 2027, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$394,054
Volume 24h:
$88,737N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$149,694
0.2%

Above 125 bu/acre

 - Kalshi

Above 125 bu/acre - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Feb 7, 2027

Will South Dakota's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 125 bu/acre?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
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Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 3% 106 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 125 bu/acre

Trade
99%
Yes 99¢No 2¢
1¢
N/A
$44,161
0%
0%
$17,763
3mo 2w 2d
active
kalshi

Above 130 bu/acre

Trade
98%
Yes 98¢No 3¢
1¢
N/A
$27,367
0%
0.37%
$19,833
3mo 2w 2d
active
kalshi

Above 135 bu/acre

Trade
98%
Yes 96¢No 5¢
1¢
N/A
$12,882
0%
0%
$3,513
3mo 2w 2d
active
kalshi

Above 140 bu/acre

Trade
93%
Yes 92¢No 9¢
1¢
N/A
$6,851
0%
0%
$2,593
3mo 2w 2d
active
kalshi

Above 145 bu/acre

Trade
84%
Yes 84¢No 17¢
1¢
N/A
$28,822
1%
3%
$2,393
3mo 2w 2d
active
kalshi

Above 150 bu/acre

Trade
57%
Yes 59¢No 42¢
1¢
N/A
$15,680
0%
0.87%
$2,767
3mo 2w 2d
active
kalshi

Above 155 bu/acre

Trade
32%
Yes 32¢No 69¢
1¢
N/A
$25,713
0%
3%
$8,545
3mo 2w 2d
active
kalshi

Above 160 bu/acre

Trade
15%
Yes 15¢No 86¢
1¢
N/A
$55,781
0%
0%
$28,328
3mo 2w 2d
active
kalshi

Above 165 bu/acre

Trade
11%
Yes 9¢No 92¢
1¢
N/A
$42,633
0%
0.47%
$20,968
3mo 2w 2d
active
kalshi

Above 170 bu/acre

Trade
8%
1%
Yes 8¢No 93¢
1¢
N/A
$59,150
1%
10%
$15,310
3mo 2w 2d
active
kalshi

Above 175 bu/acre

Trade
6%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
N/A
$29,540
0%
0.03%
$16,605
3mo 2w 2d
active
kalshi

Above 180 bu/acre

Trade
4%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
1¢
N/A
$45,473
0%
5%
$11,075
3mo 2w 2d
active
Total markets: 12

Description

The yield of corn for grain in South Dakota for the year 2026 will be measured by the USDA NASS. The market will resolve based on whether this yield exceeds a specific threshold per harvested acre, reflecting agricultural productivity and potential influences such as weather, farming practices, and market conditions.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the final 2026 corn for grain yield per harvested acre in South Dakota, as reported by USDA NASS in its first Crop Production Annual Summary. Four separate thresholds are evaluated: above 165, 170, 175, and 180 bushels per acre. Only the yield for corn for grain is considered; corn silage yield is excluded. Subsequent revisions to the data after the initial report will not affect the resolution. The outcome is determined solely by whether the reported yield exceeds each specified threshold.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the South Dakota corn yield market on Kalshi shows the current odds and price history for this market, along with a live view of 24-hour volume of $884. It provides a snapshot of trader sentiment and market movement over time, helping users monitor how expectations for next year’s crop performance are evolving.

Currently, this market reflects a different outlook than many agricultural analysts, who often use historical yields, weather patterns, and soil conditions in their models. Traders on Kalshi are pricing in additional variables such as market demand and policy changes, which can shift the expected yield higher or lower compared to traditional forecasts.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where buyers and sellers post bids and asks directly. The current top outcome has a chance of 99.0%, reflecting the collective bet of all participants. Volume of $394,054 shows the level of interest and liquidity in the market.

This market resolves around Feb 7, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will reflect the official USDA corn yield figure for South Dakota in 2026, drawn from authoritative agricultural statistics released after the harvest season.

Key signals that could shift this market include early weather forecasts for the 2026 growing season, USDA planting reports, commodity price fluctuations, and any policy announcements affecting farm subsidies or crop insurance. Unexpected droughts, pest outbreaks, or changes in global corn demand can also cause rapid movements in trader sentiment and pricing.