TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
South Carolina Senate Election Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the South Carolina Senate election?

Total volume:
$3,827,412
Volume 24h:
$45,381
42%
Liquidity:
$309,137
17%
Open interest:
$2,017,614
1%

Republican party

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 4, 2027

Will Republicans win the Senate race in South Carolina?

86%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 86¢ buys you 116 shares | Odds: 86% Total Payout: $116 | Net Profit: $16 Multiplier: 1.16x | ROI: 16% | APY: 97% 81 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Republican party

Trade
86%
1%
Yes 86¢No 15¢
1¢
N/A
$1,002,146
0.22%
27%
$623,794
2mo 3w
active
polymarket

Republican

Trade
85%
Yes 85¢No 16¢
1¢
$124,678
$334,477
3%
11%
N/A
2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
85.6%
Yes 85.5¢No 15.5¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

Democrat

Trade
16%
Yes 16¢No 85¢
1¢
$184,459
$450,586
1%
9%
N/A
2w 6d
active
kalshi

Democratic party

Trade
15%
Yes 15¢No 86¢
1¢
N/A
$2,040,203
1%
34%
$1,393,821
2mo 3w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
15.1%
Yes 15.5¢No 85.5¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
Total markets: 4

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, specifically whether Republicans or Democrats will win the race. Currently, the consensus probability across Kalshi and Polymarket indicates a Republican win at 87.0%, with Democrats trailing at 14.0%. This aggregated view combines data from multiple sources, and will resolve according to the winner of the election – inclusive of any run-offs – as reported by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or ultimately by official certification. Traders should watch the results following the election on January 4, 2027, to see which party secures the Senate seat.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket focuses on the election outcome as called by major news sources, while Kalshi focuses on the formal swearing-in of a Senator.Hero tip: Consider the potential for delays in certification or legal challenges that could create a difference in resolution timing between Polymarket and Kalshi. Focus on the likelihood of a candidate being *seated* rather than simply winning the initial vote count.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on the election winner as called by AP, Fox News, and NBC, with official certification as a fallback. Includes run-offs. "This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate."
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on whether a representative of a party is sworn in as Senator. Does not consider run-offs explicitly. "If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of South Carolina for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by which party's representative is sworn in as Senator of South Carolina for the term beginning in 2027. The market resolves to Yes if either a Republican or Democratic party representative assumes the office, with each party having a separate market outcome.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard aggregates real-time predictions on the outcome of the South Carolina Senate race. It tracks the consensus view of traders across both platforms, showing how the probability of different outcomes shifts over time. Currently, the combined volume across these platforms is $3,827,412, with $45,375 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a dynamic look at expectations for the South Carolina Senate race, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd and offering a unique perspective beyond traditional polling.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polls. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* on, which can be a more accurate signal of likely outcomes. Polling averages can be influenced by factors like sampling bias and social desirability, whereas the financial incentive in this market encourages participants to express their genuine beliefs. The 1.5 difference between prediction market probabilities and polling averages can sometimes highlight discrepancies in expectations and potential underestimation of certain candidates.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and liquidity levels. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Different risk appetites and information access among traders on each platform also contribute to price discrepancies. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? at 84.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Republicans win the Senate race in South Carolina? at 86.0%. These differences create opportunities for arbitrage, where traders attempt to profit from price variations across platforms.

This market resolves around Jan 4, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be based on the official outcome of the South Carolina Senate election, as reported by major news organizations and election authorities. This market provides a way to forecast the election result, and the resolution will reflect the winner as determined by the official vote count and any subsequent legal challenges or recounts.

Several events could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements, unexpected campaign finance disclosures, and shifts in national political trends could all influence trader sentiment. Debates, candidate gaffes, and significant news coverage are also potential catalysts. Changes in polling data, while already reflected to some extent, can also cause price adjustments. Any event that alters perceptions of a candidate's viability or the overall political landscape has the potential to move this market substantially before Jan 4, 2027.