TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Vol.
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Resolved Aug 14, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 14, 5:08 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This market tracks the performance of a specific candidate in an upcoming primary election, focusing on whether they meet various vote percentage thresholds. The outcome depends on the officially certified results, reflecting the candidate's level of support among voters in that election.
Kalshi
The market resolves based on the certified percentage of votes received by Mark Sanford in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary. Each market corresponds to a specific vote percentage threshold, ranging from 10% to 45%, and resolves to Yes if Sanford's vote share falls within or exceeds that threshold. Percentages are calculated by dividing Sanford's total valid votes by the total number of valid votes cast, multiplied by 100 and rounded as specified. Only certified results are considered; preliminary figures, invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots, and write-in votes (if not certified) are excluded. If the election is canceled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available by the expiration date, the market resolves to No. Recounts that adjust the certified percentage before expiration use the most recent certified figure. The resolution applies uniformly across all thresholds, with each market independently evaluating whether Sanford's performance meets its specific percentage requirement.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market reflects trader sentiment about the Republican primary race, but it isn’t always perfectly aligned with public polling averages. Traders may price in factors beyond recent polls, such as candidate momentum, campaign spending, and local media dynamics. Because of these differences, this market can sometimes show a wider or narrower spread than the most recent polling averages would suggest. It’s useful to compare both sources to gauge where the market is placing its confidence relative to broader public opinion.
This market resolves around Aug 11, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the vote count is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final percentage of votes received by Mark Sanford in the first round will settle all contracts. Timing depends on official results being announced and certified, after which the market closes and payouts are processed based on the actual vote share recorded.
Between now and Aug 11, 2027, several key signals could shift this market. Major developments such as debate performances, endorsements from influential figures, advertising campaigns, and local voter turnout efforts may all influence trader sentiment. Any significant polling updates — especially those focused on the South Carolina primary — are likely to have an outsized impact. Additionally, unforeseen events like gaffes, scandals, or changes in campaign strategy could cause rapid repricing as traders reassess the competitive landscape and the potential vote share for each candidate.
