TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Darline Graham, 5-10%
- Kalshi
Darline Graham, 5-10% - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
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Resolved Aug 14, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 14, 5:06 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
South Carolina will hold a special primary election on August 11, 2026, to select the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate. This market tracks the margin of victory for each candidate, measuring the percentage point difference between their vote share and the nearest competitor's vote share.
Kalshi
The margin of victory for each candidate is calculated as their vote share minus the vote share of the candidate finishing immediately behind them (if they win) or the first-place finisher (if they lose). A winning candidate's margin is positive; a losing candidate's margin is negative; a tie for first place results in a zero margin. Vote shares are calculated without rounding. If a candidate runs under multiple party affiliations or appears multiple times on the ballot, all votes for that underlying candidate are aggregated. Each market resolves to the range bracket into which the calculated margin falls. Range brackets are inclusive of their lower bound and exclusive of their upper bound. For example, a margin of exactly 5% falls into the 5-10% bracket, not the 0-5% bracket. Candidates are segmented into different margin ranges: Darline Graham has brackets at 0-5%, 5-10%, 10-15%, 15-20%, 20-25%, and 25-100%; Russell Fry has brackets at 0-5%, 5-10%, and 10-100%; Ralph Norman has brackets at 0-5%, 5-10%, and 10-100%.
Frequently asked questions
This market often reflects polling averages but can diverge based on trader expectations for turnout dynamics, late-breaking endorsements, or campaign missteps. When polls show a tight race, this market may price in a wider spread, while high-trust polls can pull odds closer to the average. Traders also factor in historical trends unique to South Carolina that polls might miss.
On Kalshi, traders actively set the odds for the South Carolina Senate primary margin market through continuous bidding and asking. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current pricing reflects aggregated trader sentiment on likely vote differences, adjusting dynamically with new polling data, candidate developments, and shifting voter sentiment. Volume of $98,004 supports these price movements, while 24-hour volume of $146 shows recent trading intensity. As the primary approaches, expect tighter spreads and increased volatility around key campaign events or debate performances.
This market resolves around Aug 11, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official primary results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The margin between the two leading candidates will be calculated from certified vote totals, and any recounts or challenges will be resolved before settlement.
Several signals could shift this market before Aug 11, 2027. New public polls showing significant changes in voter preferences will directly impact trader expectations for the vote margin. Major campaign developments—such as endorsements, controversies, or advertising pushes—may also cause rapid price swings. Economic announcements or state-specific issues gaining attention could alter voter priorities, affecting expected outcomes. As voting approaches, early voting data and demographic turnout trends will provide real-time cues, while any last-minute scandals or policy shifts could produce sharp, short-term volatility in trading prices.
