TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Graham, Norman, Fry
- Kalshi
Graham, Norman, Fry - Kalshi
1W
News
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Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 14, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 14, 5:12 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the specific ordering of candidates in a primary election, focusing on how voters rank their preferences during an initial voting round. It reflects the competitive dynamics among political contenders and how their relative positions are determined by voter choices in a single-stage voting process.
Kalshi
The event resolves to Yes if the final ranking of the three candidates in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary matches any of the six specified orderings. Each primary rule defines a unique permutation of the candidates—Darline Graham, Russell Fry, and Ralph Norman—in first, second, and third place. The market considers exact placements without requiring additional runoff rounds or tie-breaking procedures, focusing solely on the precise ordering of results from the initial ballot count.
Frequently asked questions
Compared to analyst forecasts, this market often reflects a more nuanced or forward-looking view of voter sentiment. Analysts may rely on polls and historical trends, while traders in this market incorporate real-time data, campaign developments, and betting patterns. Discrepancies can arise when market participants price in probabilities differently than traditional forecasts, especially in the weeks before the election.
This market resolves around Aug 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the primary election results are officially reported and verifiable from credible public sources. The market settles based on who wins the first-round vote in the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary, and traders’ positions close accordingly once the certified results are in.
Several signals could shift this market before Aug 25, 2026. Polling updates, candidate debates, endorsements, and local media coverage often drive trader sentiment. Economic indicators, scandals, or major policy announcements may also cause rapid price swings. As the election date approaches, betting patterns and volume spikes will reflect breaking news. Traders will watch for any development that changes the perceived likelihood of each possible outcome, with the most impactful events likely to occur in the final weeks leading to resolution.
