TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
25% - 30%
- Kalshi
25% - 30% - Kalshi
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Vol.
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Resolved Jun 16, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 16, 10:46 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
A candidate will participate in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate primary election, with the final certified vote share determining the outcome across multiple possible ranges.
Kalshi
Mark Lynch's vote percentage in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate primary is calculated as total votes received divided by total valid votes cast, multiplied by 100 and rounded to specified decimal places. Resolution uses certified official results only, including write-in votes if they appear in certified results while excluding invalid or spoiled ballots. For ranked choice voting, the percentage is based on the first round unless otherwise specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage determines resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling due to different information sets and incentive structures. Polls capture voter sentiment at a single moment, while markets aggregate real-time expectations from traders with financial stakes in accuracy. For the South Carolina Republican primary, market prices may reflect late-breaking campaign developments, fundraising momentum, or endorsements faster than polls update. Comparing Kalshi odds to recent polls and analyst forecasts can reveal whether markets are pricing in information not yet reflected in survey data.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, Mark Lynch's vote-share contract is priced as a binary or range outcome reflecting traders' collective forecast of his final vote percentage. The price moves based on order flow, new information, and shifts in candidate viability. Higher prices indicate stronger market confidence in a higher vote share; lower prices suggest traders expect a smaller result. Kalshi's continuous order book allows real-time price discovery, so Lynch's contract value adjusts dynamically as the primary approaches and campaign events unfold.
The market resolves on Jun 9, 2027, following the South Carolina Republican Senate primary election. The outcome is determined by Mark Lynch's official final vote percentage as reported by state election authorities. Resolution occurs after votes are counted and certified, ensuring accuracy. Until that date, the market remains open for trading, allowing participants to adjust positions based on campaign developments, polling shifts, and other emerging signals that may affect Lynch's performance on election day.
Key catalysts for Mark Lynch's market price include debate performances, major endorsements from state or national figures, fundraising announcements, and shifts in polling data. Campaign spending, media coverage, and candidate dropout decisions by rivals can reshape the race dynamics. Unexpected controversies or gaffes may trigger sharp repricing. Turnout models and early voting patterns in the weeks before Jun 9, 2027 will also influence trader expectations. Real-time news flow and social media momentum can drive rapid price adjustments as the primary nears.
