TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Pamela Evette, 0-5%
- Kalshi
Pamela Evette, 0-5% - Kalshi
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Resolved Jun 16, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 16, 10:45 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
Multiple candidates will compete in the first round of South Carolina's 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, with outcomes measured based on their victory margins in various percentage-point ranges.
Kalshi
The margin of victory is calculated as the vote percentage (or raw votes or electoral votes, depending on margin type) received by the candidate minus the vote percentage received by the candidate finishing immediately behind if the candidate wins, or minus the vote percentage of the first-place finisher if the candidate loses. For percentage points, margins are based on vote percentages; for raw votes, margins are based on total vote counts; for electoral votes, margins are based on electoral vote totals. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, with no rounding applied to the calculated margin. If a candidate runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes are summed. If the candidate wins, the margin is positive; if the candidate loses, the margin is negative; if the candidate ties for first, the margin is 0. For uncontested races where the candidate is the only candidate, the margin is 100 percentage points or the total votes cast (for raw votes).
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling averages because traders incorporate real-time campaign developments, fundraising data, and momentum shifts that polls may lag. While polls measure voter preference at a snapshot in time, the market continuously reprices based on new information and trader conviction. For the South Carolina Republican Governor primary margin, comparing market-implied probabilities to recent polls can reveal whether traders expect a tighter or wider victory than surveys suggest, and whether late-breaking endorsements or candidate performance shifts are already reflected in market prices.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the South Carolina Republican Governor primary margin of victory outcomes are priced as binary contracts, with each margin range assigned a separate contract. Traders buy or sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, where the price reflects the market's probability estimate for that outcome. As new polls, campaign events, or endorsements emerge, traders adjust their positions, moving prices up or down. The most-traded margin outcome typically shows the highest volume and tightest bid-ask spreads, making it easier to enter and exit positions near fair value.
The market resolves on Jun 9, 2027, following the conclusion of the first-round voting in the South Carolina Republican Governor primary. Resolution is determined by the official margin of victory reported by South Carolina election authorities. The outcome is the difference in vote share or vote count between the top two finishers, categorized into the predefined margin ranges offered on the market. Once results are certified and the correct margin bracket is confirmed, the corresponding contract settles to 100 cents and all other outcomes settle to zero.
Key catalysts include candidate endorsements from prominent state or national Republicans, debate performances, campaign spending announcements, and shifts in early voting or absentee ballot returns. Polling releases showing momentum changes or tightening races will reprrice margin expectations significantly. Unexpected candidate withdrawals or consolidation of support could widen or narrow the projected margin. Media coverage of gaffes, policy positions, or organizational strength in key regions may shift trader conviction. Turnout models and get-out-the-vote operation assessments will influence final margin predictions as primary day approaches, with the market typically becoming more volatile in the final week.
