TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Resolved Jun 16, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 16, 10:19 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
Multiple candidates will compete in the first round of South Carolina's 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, with outcomes determined by which candidate finishes in second place according to certified results.
Kalshi
Ranking is determined by the specified counting method. For plurality voting, rank is based on vote count or percentage. For ranked choice voting, rank is determined by elimination order, with the runner-up eliminated in the final round for second place. For two-round systems, rank is based on final round results if the election proceeds to a second round; otherwise, first-round totals determine ranking. For proportional representation, rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order. In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving second place resolve all named candidate markets to No unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to No.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the second-place market is priced as a set of binary or categorical contracts, each representing a candidate's chance of finishing second in the first round. Traders buy or sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, where the price directly reflects the implied probability. As new information emerges—campaign developments, polling shifts, or voter sentiment changes—the price adjusts in real time. Kalshi's order book aggregates buy and sell interest, and the last-traded price serves as the current market consensus on each candidate's likelihood of securing second place.
The market resolves on Jun 9, 2027, following the completion of the first round of voting in the South Carolina Republican Governor primary. Resolution is determined by the official vote count and the candidate who finishes in second place in that initial round. Once results are certified and the second-place finisher is confirmed, the corresponding contract resolves to 100 cents and all other outcomes resolve to zero. The market reflects only the first round outcome, not subsequent runoffs or general election performance.
Key catalysts include major campaign announcements, debate performances, endorsements from prominent South Carolina Republicans, and shifts in polling data. Candidate withdrawals or consolidations could dramatically reshape second-place odds by redirecting voter support. Media coverage of frontrunner stumbles or underdog surges often triggers sharp price moves. Voter turnout expectations, early voting patterns, and last-minute campaign spending also influence trader positioning. Regional economic news or state-specific issues affecting South Carolina voters may shift momentum. As election day approaches, final polls and internal campaign data leaks typically drive the most volatile repricing of second-place probabilities.
