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South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q2 2026
kalshi

South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q2 2026

Volume:
$10,251

Above 0.0%

 - Kalshi

Above 0.0% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 8, 2026

Closed: Sep 8, 5:29 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 0.0%

View
0%
52%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,733
N/A
N/A
$2,323
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.4%

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,991
N/A
N/A
$1,707
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.2%

View
0%
97%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,593
N/A
N/A
$887
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,488
N/A
N/A
$928
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.6%

View
0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,029
N/A
N/A
$625
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.8%

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$362
N/A
N/A
$208
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$54
N/A
N/A
$51
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This event tracks South Africa's quarter-over-quarter GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2026, measuring whether the economy expands compared to the previous quarter. The outcome depends on the actual economic performance of South Africa during this period, with multiple thresholds established to capture different levels of positive growth.

Kalshi

If the South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q2 2026 is above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. If the South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q2 2026 is above 0.2%, then the market resolves to Yes. If the South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q2 2026 is above 0.4%, then the market resolves to Yes. If the South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q2 2026 is above 0.6%, then the market resolves to Yes. If the South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q2 2026 is above 0.8%, then the market resolves to Yes. If the South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q2 2026 is above 1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. If the South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q2 2026 is above 1.2%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect aggregated trader expectations and often diverge from consensus analyst forecasts. While professional economists typically publish point estimates or ranges for South African GDP growth, markets incorporate real-time sentiment, risk premiums, and tail-risk pricing. Comparing the market's implied probability to the median analyst forecast can reveal whether traders expect stronger or weaker growth than the consensus view. This gap often signals where market participants see upside or downside surprises relative to mainstream expectations.

On Kalshi, the South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q2 2026 is priced as a binary contract: Will the rate be above 0.4%? On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy or sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, where each cent reflects a 1% probability increment. The current market price reflects the collective belief of all participants. As new economic data, central bank communications, or global conditions emerge, the price adjusts to equilibrate supply and demand, allowing traders to enter or exit positions at prevailing market rates.

The market resolves on Sep 15, 2026, following the official release of South Africa's Q2 2026 GDP data. Resolution depends on the quarter-on-quarter growth rate published by Statistics South Africa. The outcome is binary: if the reported QoQ rate exceeds 0.4%, one outcome wins; otherwise, the alternative prevails. Traders should monitor the statistical agency's release calendar and any preliminary or revised figures that may affect final settlement.

Key catalysts include South African central bank policy decisions, inflation and employment data, commodity price movements (especially gold and platinum), global economic conditions, and domestic political or fiscal developments. Manufacturing output, retail sales, and business confidence surveys released in the months leading up to Q2 2026 will inform market expectations. Currency fluctuations, energy supply disruptions, and international trade dynamics also influence growth forecasts. Any surprise in leading indicators typically triggers repricing of the market odds as traders adjust their probability estimates.