TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Solana Up or Down - March 9, 5PM ET
Volume:
$2,659
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Solana (SOL) price moves up or down on March 9, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Kalshi uses a granular price-band approach with 75 specific $1 price ranges, while Polymarket uses a simpler binary comparison of the 1-hour candle open versus close price on Binance SOL/USDT.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use incompatible measurement methodologies and data sources. Kalshi measures whether a CF Benchmarks 60-second average price snapshot falls within one of 75 discrete $1 bands; Polymarket measures directional price movement via Binance 1-hour candle open/close comparison. The same price action could produce different outcomes on each platform.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. Kalshi has 75 YES outcomes and multiple NO gaps; Polymarket has only two outcomes (UP or DOWN). A price in a Kalshi gap band (e.g., $44.50, $45.50, $51.50) triggers NO on Kalshi but could still trigger UP on Polymarket if Binance's hourly close exceeds open. Arbitrage risk exists if you hold both positions.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Resolves YES if CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second simple average before 5 PM EDT on Mar 9, 2026 lands in any of 75 specific $1 price bands (e.g., $44-44.9999, $46-46.9999, $48-48.9999, ... $116+). Resolves NO if price falls in gaps between bands or below $44. Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between [X]-[X].9999 at 5 PM EDT on Mar 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Resolves UP if Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle close price >= open price for the candle beginning at 5 PM ET on Mar 9, 2026. Resolves DOWN otherwise. Uses only Binance spot SOL/USDT pair data. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the SOL/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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