TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 5PM ET
Volume:
$158,486
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Solana's price moves up or down on March 27, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average price levels. Both platforms measure the same asset and timeframe but employ fundamentally different resolution methodologies and data sources.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution sources and logic. Polymarket resolves based on Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi contains 50 separate binary conditions based on CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI price thresholds ranging from $59.9999 to $108.9999. These are structurally different markets with no logical equivalence.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. Polymarket is a simple directional bet (Up if close >= open on Binance 1H candle), while Kalshi appears to be a collection of 50 distinct micro-markets, each with its own price threshold. Arbitrage is impossible because the underlying settlement mechanisms are incompatible. Verify which platform matches your actual trading intent before committing capital.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Resolves based on Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle comparison. Market resolves YES (Up) if close price >= open price for the 1H candle beginning at March 27, 5PM ET; otherwise NO (Down). Single binary outcome determined by one data point: 'The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Contains 50 separate binary conditions, each resolving YES if CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average before 5PM EDT exceeds a specific price threshold. Thresholds range from $59.9999 to $108.9999 with no unified resolution logic. Each condition is independent: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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