TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Solana Up or Down - March 24, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Volume:
$17,499
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Solana's price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on March 24, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Polymarket uses a simple price comparison at window start vs. end via Chainlink's SOL/USD feed, while Kalshi employs 73 separate binary contracts each tied to whether the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI exceeds a specific threshold at 5:00 PM EDT.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi employ different data sources (Chainlink vs. CF Benchmarks), different settlement times (8:00 PM ET vs. 5:00 PM EDT), and different measurement methodologies (point-in-time price vs. 60-second rolling average). This creates settlement value mismatch and prevents unified resolution.Hero Tip:
Treat these as two independent markets. Polymarket resolves on Chainlink's 8:00 PM SOL/USD price; Kalshi resolves on CF Benchmarks' 5:00 PM SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average. Price movements between 5:00 PM and 8:00 PM, or discrepancies between the two data sources, will cause divergent outcomes. Hedge accordingly.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution based on whether SOL/USD price at 8:00 PM ET is greater than or equal to the price at 4:00 PM ET. Uses Chainlink SOL/USD data stream as the sole authoritative source. Key Quote: 'This market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream SOL/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.'
- Kalshi: 73 separate binary contracts, each resolving Yes if the simple 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI before 5:00 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from $47.99 to $121.99) at exactly 5:00 PM EDT on March 24, 2026. Uses CF Benchmarks as the data source and a rolling 60-second average methodology.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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