TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 5PM ET
Volume:
$26,815
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Solana (SOL) price moves up or down on March 19, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses a 1-hour candle close vs. open comparison on Binance SOL/USDT, while Kalshi uses 60-second CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI price averages at multiple threshold levels.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use incompatible market structures (single binary vs. 72 threshold-based markets), different data sources (Binance SOL/USDT vs. CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI), and different measurement windows (1-hour candle open/close vs. 60-second average). These differences prevent direct cross-platform hedging or arbitrage.Hero Tip:
Treat Polymarket and Kalshi as separate bets. Polymarket is a directional call (Up or Down). Kalshi lets you bet on specific price levels. If you want directional exposure, use Polymarket. If you want granular price-level exposure, use Kalshi. Monitor both Binance and CF Benchmarks feeds separately—they may diverge at 5 PM ET on March 19.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Single binary market: resolves Up if Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle close >= open; otherwise Down. Resolution source is Binance official chart data for the 1H candle starting at 5 PM ET on March 19, 2026.
- Kalshi: 72 independent binary markets, each tied to a specific price threshold. Each resolves Yes if CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average (measured in the 60 seconds before 5 PM EDT) exceeds the threshold. Thresholds range from $52.9999 to $126.9999 in $1 increments.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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