TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 5PM ET
Volume:
$25,565
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Solana (SOL) price moves up or down on March 12, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Kalshi uses a granular price-band approach with CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI data, while Polymarket uses a simpler directional comparison (close vs. open) on Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle data.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket employ incompatible resolution methodologies and data sources. Kalshi measures absolute price bands against CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI; Polymarket measures directional price movement (close vs. open) on Binance SOL/USDT. These are fundamentally different settlement frameworks.Hero Tip:
Kalshi's market is heavily skewed toward YES resolution (covers ~$49–$122 range); Polymarket is a true directional bet. They are not hedges or arbitrage pairs. Verify which platform's data source and methodology aligns with your trading thesis before entering positions.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Price-band bucketing model. Resolves YES if 60-second average of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI lands in any of 72 specific $1-wide bands ($49–$122+), or below $49, or above $121.9999. Resolves NO only if price falls in the gap $122–$122.9999. This structure creates asymmetric YES bias across most realistic price scenarios.
- Polymarket: Directional comparison model. Resolves UP if Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle close >= open; DOWN if close < open. Pure directional bet, independent of absolute price levels or price bands. Source: Binance SOL/USDT pair only.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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