TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$87,997,338

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,395,155,069

395,664

Markets across

30,076

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,626

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Solana Up or Down - March 12, 5PM ET
kalshi
polymarket

Solana Up or Down - March 12, 5PM ET

Volume:
$25,565

Solana Up or Down - March 12, 5PM ET

 - Polymarket

Solana Up or Down - March 12, 5PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 13, 2026

Closed: Mar 12, 6:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Solana Up or Down - March 12, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$25,097
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$86 to 86.9999

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$62
N/A
N/A
$62
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$87 to 87.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$143
N/A
N/A
$110
Settled
No
kalshi

$90 to 90.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

$103 to 103.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$93
N/A
N/A
$93
Settled
No
kalshi

$85 to 85.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$35
N/A
N/A
$21
Settled
No
kalshi

$84 to 84.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17
N/A
N/A
$17
Settled
No
kalshi

$83 to 83.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
No
kalshi

$80 to 80.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
No
kalshi

$88 to 88.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
No
kalshi

$92 to 92.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$3
Settled
No
kalshi

$82 to 82.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$93 to 93.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$65 to 65.9999

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$49 to 49.9999

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$115 to 115.9999

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$68 to 68.9999

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$113 to 113.9999

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$101 to 101.9999

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$105 to 105.9999

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$112 to 112.9999

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$100 to 100.9999

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$78 to 78.9999

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$120 to 120.9999

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$61 to 61.9999

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 76

Description

This event group tracks whether Solana (SOL) price moves up or down on March 12, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Kalshi uses a granular price-band approach with CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI data, while Polymarket uses a simpler directional comparison (close vs. open) on Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle data.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket employ incompatible resolution methodologies and data sources. Kalshi measures absolute price bands against CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI; Polymarket measures directional price movement (close vs. open) on Binance SOL/USDT. These are fundamentally different settlement frameworks.Hero tip: Kalshi's market is heavily skewed toward YES resolution (covers ~$49–$122 range); Polymarket is a true directional bet. They are not hedges or arbitrage pairs. Verify which platform's data source and methodology aligns with your trading thesis before entering positions.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Price-band bucketing model. Resolves YES if 60-second average of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI lands in any of 72 specific $1-wide bands ($49–$122+), or below $49, or above $121.9999. Resolves NO only if price falls in the gap $122–$122.9999. This structure creates asymmetric YES bias across most realistic price scenarios.
  • Polymarket: Directional comparison model. Resolves UP if Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle close >= open; DOWN if close < open. Pure directional bet, independent of absolute price levels or price bands. Source: Binance SOL/USDT pair only.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.