TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 5PM ET
Volume:
$36,793
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Solana's price moves up or down at a specific moment on March 11, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses a 1-hour candle close vs. open comparison on Binance SOL/USDT, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI index with 60-second averaging. Both markets attempt to capture directional price movement but employ fundamentally different data sources, measurement windows, and resolution methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi employ incompatible data sources (Binance SOL/USDT vs. CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI), different time windows (1-hour candle vs. 60-second average), and distinct resolution logics (directional comparison vs. multi-threshold price levels). A single price movement could resolve differently on each platform.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets are fungible. Polymarket resolves based on Binance candle open/close; Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks index. If Binance and CF Benchmarks prices diverge at 5 PM ET on March 11, 2026, the two platforms may produce opposite outcomes. Monitor both data sources in real time and adjust positions accordingly.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional market: UP if SOL/USDT 1-hour candle close >= open on Binance; DOWN otherwise. Single outcome per event. Data source: Binance SOL/USDT pair, 1-hour candle finalized at event time. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: 75 separate binary price-level outcomes. Each resolves YES if 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold ($47.9999 to $121.9999). No single UP/DOWN outcome; instead, a ladder of price targets. Data source: CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI index. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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