TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 5PM ET
Volume:
$12,302
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Solana (SOL) price moves up or down on March 10, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Kalshi uses a granular CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI price-band approach (75 specific $1 price ranges), while Polymarket uses a simpler binary comparison of the Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle open versus close price.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket employ distinct data sources (CF Benchmarks vs. Binance), measurement methodologies (60-second average price band vs. 1-hour candle open/close comparison), and resolution triggers (absolute price level vs. directional movement). A single SOL price action on March 10 at 5 PM ET could resolve differently on each platform.Hero Tip:
Treat these as independent markets with different risk profiles. Kalshi's 75 YES outcomes cover nearly all price levels, making NO resolution rare; Polymarket's binary outcome depends purely on whether price moved up or stayed flat. Price volatility within the 1-hour candle does not affect Polymarket, but CF Benchmarks' 60-second snapshot is sensitive to exact timing. Verify both sources in real-time before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Resolves YES if CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second simple average before 5 PM EDT falls into one of 75 predefined $1 price bands (e.g., $44–$44.9999, $45–$45.9999, ... $116–$116.9999), or is below $44, or above $116.9999. Effectively covers all prices >= $44 and below $44. Quote: 'simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT.'
- Polymarket: Resolves UP if Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle close price >= open price; resolves DOWN otherwise. Uses the 1H candle that begins at the specified time on March 10, 2026. Quote: 'close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the SOL/USDT 1 hour candle.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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