TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Solana Up or Down - June 30, 5PM ET
kalshi
polymarket

Will Solana be up on June 30, 5PM ET?

Volume:
$3,589

$73 to 73.9999

 - Kalshi

$73 to 73.9999 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 30, 2026

Closed: Jun 30, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$73 to 73.9999

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$236
N/A
N/A
$145
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Solana Up or Down - June 30, 5PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,262
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$74 to 74.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$91
N/A
N/A
$91
Settled
No
kalshi

$33.9999 or below

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$34 to 34.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$35 to 35.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$36 to 36.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$37 to 37.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$38 to 38.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$39 to 39.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$40 to 40.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$41 to 41.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$42 to 42.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$43 to 43.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$44 to 44.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$45 to 45.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$46 to 46.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$47 to 47.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$48 to 48.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$49 to 49.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$50 to 50.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$51 to 51.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$52 to 52.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$53 to 53.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$54 to 54.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 76

Description

This event group tracks whether Solana (SOL) price moves up or down on June 30, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Kalshi uses a granular price-band approach with CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI data, while Polymarket uses a simpler directional comparison (close vs. open) on Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle data.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket employ incompatible resolution methodologies: Kalshi uses discrete price-band triggers from a CF Benchmarks oracle, while Polymarket uses directional comparison of Binance candle open/close. Data source fragmentation (CF Benchmarks vs. Binance) and measurement timing (60-second average vs. 1-hour candle) create potential for non-aligned outcomes.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets move together. Kalshi's 75 price bands mean most outcomes resolve Yes—it is a price-discovery instrument. Polymarket is a directional bet. If CF Benchmarks and Binance prices diverge on June 30 at 5 PM ET, or if SOL closes in a gap between Kalshi's bands, outcomes may conflict. Monitor both data sources in real time and consider the liquidity and settlement risk on each platform independently.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Uses CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second simple average before 5 PM EDT on June 30, 2026. Defines 75 discrete $1-wide price bands (e.g., $34–$34.9999, $35–$35.9999, ..., $106–$106.9999, and >$106.9999). Each band condition resolves to Yes. No explicit No outcome is defined; implicitly, any price outside all 75 bands would resolve No. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between [X]–[X].9999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Uses Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle that begins at the specified time and date (June 30, 5 PM ET). Resolves to Up if close price >= open price; otherwise Down. Quote: 'This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the SOL/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down".'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the SOL/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the simple average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on June 30, 2026. Each outcome specifies a price range; if the 60-second average falls within that range, the market resolves to Yes. Ranges are mutually exclusive and cover the full spectrum from below $34 to above $107. The official and final value is the average of the 60 RTI prices collected at the last minute before expiration. If no data is available or incomplete at expiration, affected strikes resolve to No.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds represent what traders collectively believe will happen, not what spot prices currently show. If this market trades near 50–50, it signals genuine uncertainty about direction by the deadline. Spot prices reflect immediate supply and demand, while prediction odds embed forward-looking sentiment, volatility expectations, and tail-risk premiums. A gap between current spot levels and market-implied probabilities often signals either underpriced conviction or overconfidence in one direction. Comparing these two signals helps traders identify whether consensus is pricing in upcoming catalysts or if sentiment has drifted from fundamental technicals.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different regulatory frameworks, fee structures, and user bases, which naturally creates pricing gaps. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket attracts global retail traders and often sees higher volume, while Kalshi's US-regulated environment draws institutional participants and compliance-conscious traders. Liquidity depth, withdrawal policies, and platform-specific incentives also influence how each venue prices the same outcome. These differences are normal and create arbitrage opportunities for traders monitoring both books simultaneously.

Major catalysts include Solana network upgrades, validator performance announcements, macroeconomic shifts affecting risk appetite, and regulatory news impacting crypto broadly. On-chain metrics like transaction volume and active addresses can shift trader conviction, as can competing blockchain developments or institutional adoption milestones. Bitcoin and Ethereum price action often drag altcoins directionally, so monitoring broader crypto sentiment is essential. Unexpected security incidents, exchange listings, or partnership announcements specific to the Solana ecosystem could trigger sharp repricing. Traders should set alerts for ecosystem news and track macro sentiment indicators through the resolution window.