TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
kalshi
polymarket

Will Solana be up on June 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET?

Volume:
$61,337

Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

 - Polymarket

Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 29, 2026

Closed: Jun 28, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$11,056
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$70 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,955
N/A
N/A
$4,230
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$69 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,765
N/A
N/A
$1,759
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$68 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,570
N/A
N/A
$1,550
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$67 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$500
N/A
N/A
$500
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$41 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$357
N/A
N/A
$357
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$33 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$47
N/A
N/A
$47
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$34 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$72 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16,825
N/A
N/A
$11,122
Settled
No
kalshi

$71 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,416
N/A
N/A
$6,469
Settled
No
kalshi

$73 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,973
N/A
N/A
$4,789
Settled
No
kalshi

$74 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,867
N/A
N/A
$1,867
Settled
No
kalshi

$35 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$36 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$37 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$38 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$39 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$40 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$42 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$43 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$44 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$45 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$46 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$47 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$48 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 76

Description

This event group tracks whether Solana's price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on June 28, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Kalshi offers 75 binary markets at granular price thresholds, while Polymarket offers a single binary Up/Down comparison market. Both use different data sources and measurement methodologies.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket measure different things: Kalshi resolves on absolute price thresholds at a fixed moment (5 PM EDT), while Polymarket resolves on directional price movement (4 PM to 8 PM comparison). Data sources also differ (CF Benchmarks vs. Chainlink).Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets with different risk profiles. Kalshi's 75 markets are threshold-based; Polymarket's is directional. A Kalshi Yes does not imply a Polymarket Up, and vice versa. Monitor both CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI and Chainlink SOL/USD feeds independently.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 75 separate binary markets, each resolving Yes if CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (e.g., $32.9999, $50.9999, $106.9999). All measure the same moment in time. Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Jun 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Single binary market resolving Up if SOL/USD price at 8:00 PM ET is greater than or equal to price at 4:00 PM ET (directional comparison over 4-hour window). Uses Chainlink SOL/USD data stream. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Solana price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Solana price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream SOL/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the simple average of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI over the 60 seconds immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on June 28, 2026. Each outcome resolves to Yes if the average price exceeds the specified threshold. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The official and final value is calculated as the average of 60 RTI prices collected at the last minute before expiration.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect trader conviction about directional movement, not absolute price targets. A high probability for an up move signals traders expect bullish momentum, while spot prices on exchanges like Coinbase or Kraken show current trading levels. This market's odds can diverge from spot price stability because they price in volatility risk and event catalysts within the four-hour window. Traders may assign high probability to movement even if current spot price appears stable, since prediction markets reward directional accuracy regardless of magnitude. Comparing odds to recent spot price action helps identify whether the market is pricing in new information or consensus shift.

Major catalysts include Solana network upgrades, validator performance announcements, or shifts in broader crypto sentiment tied to Bitcoin or Ethereum. Regulatory news affecting SOL's trading status, large token unlock events, or ecosystem partnership announcements can trigger sharp repricing. Macro events—Federal Reserve decisions, traditional market volatility, or competing blockchain developments—often ripple into Solana trading. Technical levels and support/resistance zones matter too; traders watch for breakouts or rejections that signal momentum shifts. Real-time social media sentiment and whale wallet movements can accelerate positioning changes as the market window approaches, making this a dynamic, event-driven bet.