TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Will Solana be up or down on June 27 at 8:00PM ET?

Volume:
$71,554

$71 or above

 - Kalshi

$71 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 28, 2026

Closed: Jun 27, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$71 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$14,597
N/A
N/A
$4,099
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$70 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,501
N/A
N/A
$3,447
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$28 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$19
N/A
N/A
$19
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$72 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$18,759
N/A
N/A
$11,396
Settled
No
kalshi

$73 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,274
N/A
N/A
$3,536
Settled
No
polymarket

Solana Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,205
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$74 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,813
N/A
N/A
$4,175
Settled
No
kalshi

$75 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,544
N/A
N/A
$3,542
Settled
No
kalshi

$101 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$842
N/A
N/A
$842
Settled
No
kalshi

$29 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$30 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$31 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$32 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$33 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$34 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$35 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$36 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$37 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$38 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$39 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$40 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$41 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$42 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$43 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$44 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 76

Description

This event group tracks whether Solana's price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on June 27, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Kalshi offers 75 binary contracts at different price thresholds, while Polymarket offers a single binary contract comparing end-of-period price to start-of-period price.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket measure different settlement times (5 PM EDT vs 8 PM ET), use different data sources (CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI vs Chainlink SOL/USD), and employ different resolution methodologies (75 threshold-based contracts vs single price-comparison contract). The markets are not directly comparable.Hero tip: Kalshi's 75 contracts all settle at 5 PM EDT based on a 60-second CF Benchmarks average, while Polymarket's single contract settles at 8 PM ET based on Chainlink's SOL/USD stream. Price movement from 5 PM to 8 PM ET could cause divergent outcomes. Verify your data source preference and settlement time before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 75 separate binary contracts, each with a specific price threshold. All resolve at 5 PM EDT (not 8 PM ET) based on the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT. Thresholds range from $27.9999 to $102.9999. Each contract resolves to Yes if the average exceeds its threshold, No otherwise. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Single binary contract comparing SOL/USD price at 8:00 PM ET (end of window) to price at 4:00 PM ET (start of window). Resolves to Up if end price >= start price, Down otherwise. Uses Chainlink SOL/USD data stream. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Solana price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Solana price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream SOL/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Kalshi

Resolution depends on the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT on June 27, 2026. Each rule establishes a threshold price, and the market resolves Yes if the averaged price exceeds that threshold. The price determination uses CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index exclusively, with 60 individual price points collected in the final minute before expiration and averaged to produce the official settlement price.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect trader conviction about directional movement, not absolute price targets. A high probability for "up" signals that most participants expect positive momentum during the trading window, while lower odds suggest skepticism or balanced uncertainty. These odds often diverge from spot price levels because they embed forward-looking sentiment, recent volatility, and event-driven catalysts. Comparing this market's odds to current spot prices and implied volatility in derivatives markets can reveal whether traders are pricing in tail risk, mean reversion, or momentum continuation. The gap between prediction odds and derivatives pricing sometimes highlights where informed traders see value.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different market rules, user bases, and liquidity profiles, which can create pricing gaps on the same event. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform's order book depth, fee structure, and trader demographics influence how quickly new information gets priced in. Polymarket may attract institutional flow with tighter risk controls, while Kalshi draws a broader retail audience with different time horizons. Regulatory frameworks and position limits also differ between venues. These structural differences mean that even identical outcomes can trade at meaningfully different odds, creating opportunities for cross-platform traders to arbitrage the spread until prices converge.

Macro crypto sentiment, Bitcoin price action, and Solana-specific network or ecosystem news are primary catalysts. Regulatory announcements affecting blockchain assets, changes in staking yields, or major dapp activity shifts can swing trader conviction sharply. Broader equity or Fed policy signals often ripple into crypto markets within hours. Technical levels and liquidation cascades in leveraged trading can also trigger sudden directional moves. Monitoring on-chain metrics like transaction volume and validator participation, alongside social sentiment and derivatives funding rates, helps traders anticipate momentum shifts before this market's close. Unexpected exchange outflows or whale transactions can also spike volatility in the final hours.