TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Solana Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Will Solana be up on June 25, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET?

Volume:
$127,679

$66 or above

 - Kalshi

$66 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 25, 2026

Closed: Jun 25, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$66 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$28,249
N/A
N/A
$5,689
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$64 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$16,844
N/A
N/A
$7,297
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$65 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12,952
N/A
N/A
$4,997
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,179
N/A
N/A
$3,177
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,901
N/A
N/A
$1,901
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$67 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$26,770
N/A
N/A
$9,244
Settled
No
kalshi

$70 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,724
N/A
N/A
$4,529
Settled
No
kalshi

$69 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,752
N/A
N/A
$3,757
Settled
No
kalshi

$71 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,926
N/A
N/A
$2,027
Settled
No
kalshi

$68 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,387
N/A
N/A
$2,568
Settled
No
polymarket

Solana Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,320
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$98 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$187
N/A
N/A
$187
Settled
No
kalshi

$72 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$136
N/A
N/A
$136
Settled
No
kalshi

$101 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$93
N/A
N/A
$93
Settled
No
kalshi

$102 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$93
N/A
N/A
$93
Settled
No
kalshi

$99 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$65
N/A
N/A
$65
Settled
No
kalshi

$100 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$46
N/A
N/A
$46
Settled
No
kalshi

$28 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$29 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$30 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$31 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$32 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$33 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 76

Description

This event group tracks whether Solana's price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on June 25, 2026 (4:00 AM–8:00 AM ET). Kalshi offers 75 binary contracts tied to specific price thresholds measured against CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI at 5 PM EDT, while Polymarket offers a single binary contract comparing the Chainlink SOL/USD price at the end of the window versus the beginning.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket use different price sources (CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI vs. Chainlink SOL/USD), different measurement times (5 PM EDT vs. 4–8 AM ET window), and different resolution logic (absolute thresholds vs. directional comparison). These differences create independent resolution paths that may not align.Hero tip: Kalshi's 75 contracts are threshold-based snapshots at 5 PM EDT, well outside the 4–8 AM window. Polymarket's single contract is a directional bet within the 4–8 AM window. Price movement during 4–8 AM does not determine Kalshi outcomes; only the 5 PM EDT CF Benchmarks reading matters. Conversely, Polymarket ignores the 5 PM reading entirely. Treat these as independent markets with separate resolution mechanics.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 75 binary contracts, each tied to an absolute price threshold for CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI measured as a 60-second average before 5 PM EDT on June 25, 2026. Thresholds range from $27.9999 to $101.9999. Resolution: YES if the average exceeds the threshold; NO otherwise (implied). All contracts resolve at the same moment (5 PM EDT) using the same data source.
  • Polymarket: Single binary contract measuring directional price change for Solana during the 4:00 AM–8:00 AM ET window on June 25, 2026, using Chainlink SOL/USD data stream. Resolution: UP if price at 8:00 AM >= price at 4:00 AM; DOWN otherwise. Measurement window and oracle are distinct from Kalshi.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Solana price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream SOL/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the simple average of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI over the 60 seconds immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on June 25, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution occurring only if the averaged price exceeds that threshold at exactly the specified time. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data for accurate price determination.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds represent the collective probability that traders assign to an outcome, which often diverges from spot price momentum alone. While spot price reflects current market value, this market prices in forward-looking sentiment about directional movement over a discrete time window. Traders on these platforms incorporate technical analysis, on-chain metrics, macro sentiment, and event catalysts into their bids. The odds you see here aggregate thousands of individual positions, making them a crowdsourced forecast that can outperform single-indicator price analysis.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different market rules, user bases, and liquidity profiles, which naturally creates pricing gaps. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform's order book reflects its own trader demographics and risk appetite; one may attract more retail flow while the other draws institutional capital. Differences in contract design, fee structures, and settlement procedures also influence how odds are quoted. Savvy traders monitor both venues to identify arbitrage opportunities or to gauge which platform's consensus they trust more for this particular event.

Major catalysts include Solana network updates, changes in validator performance, shifts in broader crypto sentiment, and macroeconomic announcements affecting risk appetite. On-chain metrics like transaction volume and active addresses can signal strength or weakness. Regulatory news, Bitcoin or Ethereum price swings, and announcements from major Solana ecosystem projects may also influence trader positioning. Real-time social sentiment, technical chart patterns, and derivative funding rates are common signals traders monitor to adjust their bets before the June 25 window opens.