TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

Volume:
$164,845

$72 or above

 - Kalshi

$72 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 18, 2026

Closed: Jun 17, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$72 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$23,814
N/A
N/A
$12,032
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$70 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$17,792
N/A
N/A
$8,724
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$71 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$17,176
N/A
N/A
$6,671
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$69 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,341
N/A
N/A
$6,969
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,916
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$38 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$468
N/A
N/A
$468
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$66 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$140
N/A
N/A
$140
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$67 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
$20
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$75 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25,267
N/A
N/A
$13,474
Settled
No
kalshi

$74 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$19,184
N/A
N/A
$6,748
Settled
No
kalshi

$76 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15,135
N/A
N/A
$8,016
Settled
No
kalshi

$73 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,277
N/A
N/A
$8,745
Settled
No
kalshi

$77 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,116
N/A
N/A
$6,590
Settled
No
kalshi

$78 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,827
N/A
N/A
$4,766
Settled
No
kalshi

$79 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,397
N/A
N/A
$1,397
Settled
No
kalshi

$100 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$982
N/A
N/A
$982
Settled
No
kalshi

$80 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$912
N/A
N/A
$912
Settled
No
kalshi

$81 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$80
N/A
N/A
$80
Settled
No
kalshi

$39 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$40 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$41 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$42 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$43 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$44 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$45 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 76

Description

This event group tracks whether Solana's price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on June 17, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Kalshi offers 75 separate binary contracts, each tied to whether SOL/USD exceeds a specific price threshold at 5 PM EDT. Polymarket offers a single binary contract comparing the closing price at 8:00 PM ET to the opening price at 4:00 PM ET.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct settlement methodologies: Kalshi uses a single point-in-time CF Benchmarks snapshot at 5 PM EDT; Polymarket uses a Chainlink-based price comparison across the full 4-hour window (4 PM–8 PM ET). Data sources, timing, and resolution logic differ materially.Hero tip: Kalshi's 75 contracts are threshold ladders at 5 PM EDT only. Polymarket's single contract is a directional bet over 4 hours. Price movement between 4 PM and 5 PM, or between 5 PM and 8 PM, will affect Polymarket but not Kalshi. Confirm your data source preference (CF Benchmarks vs. Chainlink) before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 75 separate binary contracts, each resolving Yes/No based on whether the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (37.9999 to 111.9999 USD). All contracts settle at exactly 5 PM EDT on June 17, 2026. Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Jun 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Single binary contract resolving Up/Down based on Chainlink SOL/USD price comparison: Up if 8 PM ET price ≥ 4 PM ET price, Down otherwise. Covers the full 4-hour window (4 PM–8 PM ET) on June 17, 2026. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Solana price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Solana price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream SOL/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the simple average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI collected in the 60 seconds prior to 5 PM EDT on June 17, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold; if the average price is above that threshold, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. CF Benchmarks' Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data for major cryptocurrencies, and the official value is the average of the 60 collected prices.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds represent trader conviction about directional movement, not absolute price targets. If this market shows strong odds favoring an up move, it suggests traders expect upward momentum during the four-hour window, though the magnitude remains uncertain. Spot price expectations from traditional technical analysis or on-chain metrics may diverge from prediction odds because markets price in tail risk, sentiment shifts, and event-driven catalysts differently. Comparing the two can reveal whether prediction traders are more or less bullish than conventional indicators suggest, helping you identify potential mispricings or consensus blind spots.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and risk appetites, which can cause temporary price divergence even on identical events. Polymarket and Kalshi may also have different fee structures, user interfaces, and settlement timelines that influence how traders price uncertainty. Arbitrage opportunities sometimes emerge when one platform lags the other in incorporating new information. Monitoring both venues helps you spot when one is overpriced relative to the other and understand which community's conviction is stronger.

Macro crypto sentiment, Bitcoin volatility, and Solana-specific network updates or ecosystem announcements can all shift odds in this market. Regulatory news affecting the broader crypto sector, major exchange listings or delistings, and developer activity on the Solana blockchain may influence trader positioning. Intraday technical levels and order-book imbalances closer to the June 17 window can also trigger rapid repricing. Monitoring on-chain metrics, social sentiment, and macro risk appetite will help you anticipate how this market may evolve before resolution.