TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET
kalshi
polymarket

Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET

Volume:
$3,431

$74 to 74.9999

 - Kalshi

$74 to 74.9999 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 16, 2026

Closed: Jun 16, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$74 to 74.9999

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$3
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,315
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$101 to 101.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$94
N/A
N/A
$94
Settled
No
kalshi

$77 to 77.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16
N/A
N/A
$15
Settled
No
kalshi

$75 to 75.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$3
Settled
No
kalshi

$73 to 73.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$33.9999 or below

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$34 to 34.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$35 to 35.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$36 to 36.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$37 to 37.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$38 to 38.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$39 to 39.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$40 to 40.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$41 to 41.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$42 to 42.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$43 to 43.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$44 to 44.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$45 to 45.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$46 to 46.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$47 to 47.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$48 to 48.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$49 to 49.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$50 to 50.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$51 to 51.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 76

Description

This event group tracks whether Solana (SOL) price moves up or down on June 16, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Kalshi uses a granular price-band approach based on CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average, while Polymarket uses a simpler directional comparison (close vs. open) on Binance's SOL/USDT 1-hour candle.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket employ distinct price sources (CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI vs. Binance SOL/USDT), measurement methodologies (60-second average of discrete bands vs. 1-hour candle open/close), and resolution logic (absolute price levels vs. directional comparison). This creates basis risk and potential for conflicting outcomes.Hero tip: Do not assume Kalshi YES and Polymarket UP are equivalent. Kalshi YES requires SOL to land in one of 75 specific $1 bands; Polymarket UP only requires close >= open on Binance's 1H candle. A 5% rally on Binance could resolve Polymarket UP but miss Kalshi's price bands entirely if CF Benchmarks data diverges. Cross-check both data feeds independently before settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Uses CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average before 5 PM EDT. Resolves YES if price falls within any of 75 discrete $1 bands ($34–$34.9999, $35–$35.9999, ... $106+). Resolves NO only if price is below $34 or in unmapped gaps. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $37-37.9999 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Uses Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle (beginning at 5 PM ET on June 16). Resolves UP if close >= open; DOWN otherwise. No price bands; purely directional. Quote: 'This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the SOL/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down".'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the SOL/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the simple average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' Solana-Dollar Real Time Index (SOLUSD_RTI) prices collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on June 16, 2026. Each outcome specifies a price range; if the average price falls within that range, the market resolves to Yes. At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected and averaged to determine the official final value. If data is unavailable or incomplete, affected strikes resolve to No.

Frequently asked questions

Major catalysts include Solana network upgrades, validator performance reports, and shifts in institutional adoption or developer funding. Regulatory announcements affecting crypto broadly, or SOL-specific compliance news, can trigger sharp repricing. Macroeconomic events—Federal Reserve decisions, equity market volatility, or Bitcoin momentum—often correlate with altcoin directional moves. On-chain metrics like transaction volume and active addresses may also influence trader conviction as the resolution date approaches.