TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,590,312

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,439,516,703

404,175

Markets across

30,277

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,685

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

Volume:
$49,055

$72 or above

 - Kalshi

$72 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 17, 2026

Closed: Jun 16, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$72 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,464
N/A
N/A
$3,236
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$74 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,826
N/A
N/A
$1,369
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$71 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,823
N/A
N/A
$1,291
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$73 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,841
N/A
N/A
$940
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$69 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,636
N/A
N/A
$1,636
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$68 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$374
N/A
N/A
$374
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$70 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$75 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,060
N/A
N/A
$5,339
Settled
No
kalshi

$77 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,151
N/A
N/A
$2,880
Settled
No
kalshi

$76 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,189
N/A
N/A
$2,644
Settled
No
kalshi

$78 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,873
N/A
N/A
$1,729
Settled
No
polymarket

Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,983
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$79 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,570
N/A
N/A
$1,534
Settled
No
kalshi

$80 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$192
N/A
N/A
$192
Settled
No
kalshi

$81 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
$75
Settled
No
kalshi

$33 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$34 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$35 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$36 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$37 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$38 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$39 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$40 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$41 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$42 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 76

Description

This event group tracks whether Solana's price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on June 16, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Kalshi offers 75 granular price-level markets, while Polymarket offers a single binary up/down comparison. The core question is identical across platforms, but the resolution methodologies and data sources differ significantly.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket use different resolution timestamps (5 PM EDT vs. 8 PM ET), different data sources (CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI vs. Chainlink SOL/USD), and different measurement methodologies (60-second average snapshot vs. price comparison). These differences create potential for conflicting outcomes.Hero tip: Kalshi resolves at 5 PM EDT on a 60-second CF Benchmarks average; Polymarket resolves at 8 PM ET on Chainlink price levels. If SOL is volatile in the 5–8 PM window, or if the two feeds diverge, the markets may resolve oppositely. Cross-platform traders should monitor both feeds in real time and account for a 3-hour timing gap.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 75 separate YES/NO markets, each tied to a specific price threshold. All resolve based on CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second simple average measured at 5 PM EDT on June 16, 2026. Thresholds range from $32.9999 to $106.9999. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Jun 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Single binary market (Up/Down). Resolves UP if SOL/USD price at 8:00 PM ET >= price at 4:00 PM ET on June 16, 2026. Uses Chainlink SOL/USD data stream (https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd) as the exclusive resolution source. Quote: 'This market will resolve to "Up" if the Solana price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Solana price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream SOL/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the simple average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' Solana-Dollar Real Time Index (SOLUSD_RTI) prices collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on June 16, 2026. Each outcome specifies a price threshold; if the average price exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes. At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected and averaged to determine the official final value. If data is unavailable or incomplete, affected strikes resolve to No.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often diverge from spot price momentum because they embed tail-risk premiums, funding-rate signals, and trader positioning that spot prices alone do not reflect. When this market shows strong conviction toward one direction, it typically signals that leveraged traders or informed participants expect momentum beyond what current price action suggests. Comparing the odds here to live SOL charting can reveal whether the prediction market is pricing in a move that spot traders have not yet priced in, or conversely, whether spot volatility is outpacing prediction market confidence.

Polymarket and Kalshi serve different trader bases with distinct liquidity pools, regulatory frameworks, and market-making incentives. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi operates under CFTC oversight with tighter position limits, while Polymarket draws global retail and professional traders with higher leverage tolerance. Differences in order-book depth, fee structures, and settlement mechanics mean that the same directional outcome can trade at materially different odds. Arbitrage between the two platforms is limited by withdrawal friction and platform-specific rules, so price gaps can persist even when the underlying event is identical.

Major catalysts include Solana ecosystem announcements, changes in network activity or validator performance, shifts in broader crypto sentiment, and Bitcoin or Ethereum price moves that correlate with SOL. Regulatory news, exchange listings, or large token unlocks can trigger sharp directional conviction. Funding-rate spikes on derivatives exchanges often precede this market repricing, as leveraged traders front-run spot moves. Monitoring on-chain volume, social sentiment, and macro risk-off events in the hours before the 4:00 PM ET window opens will help you anticipate which way traders are positioning.