TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$129,159,707

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,442,132,418

404,744

Markets across

30,489

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,691

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET

Volume:
$27,166

$67 or above

 - Kalshi

$67 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 14, 2026

Closed: Jun 14, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$67 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,399
N/A
N/A
$1,598
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,552
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$65 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,699
N/A
N/A
$1,699
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$66 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,501
N/A
N/A
$1,496
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$53 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$842
N/A
N/A
$842
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$64 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$486
N/A
N/A
$486
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$281
N/A
N/A
$281
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$68 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,370
N/A
N/A
$3,603
Settled
No
kalshi

$69 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,032
N/A
N/A
$2,890
Settled
No
kalshi

$70 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,061
N/A
N/A
$1,431
Settled
No
kalshi

$71 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$760
N/A
N/A
$760
Settled
No
kalshi

$72 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$150
N/A
N/A
$150
Settled
No
kalshi

$84 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

$80 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$76 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$79 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$28 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$29 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$30 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$31 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$32 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$33 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$34 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$35 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$36 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 76

Description

This event group tracks whether Solana's price moves up or down at a specific moment on June 14, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses a 1-hour candle comparison on Binance (open vs. close), while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI index with 60 multiple price thresholds, creating fundamentally different settlement mechanics and data sources.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use incompatible data sources (Binance spot candle vs. CF Benchmarks index), incompatible resolution mechanics (binary candle comparison vs. 60 tiered thresholds), and incompatible timing interpretations (1-hour candle finalization vs. 60-second average snapshot). Neither platform's logic directly maps to the other.Hero tip: Treat these as two separate markets with correlated but non-identical outcomes. Polymarket resolves to a single binary outcome (Up or Down). Kalshi resolves to 60 independent Yes/No outcomes based on price tiers. If you are hedging across platforms, account for the possibility that Binance candle close and CF index 60-second average may diverge, especially in volatile conditions. Monitor both data sources independently.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution based on Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close >= open, Down otherwise. Single data source, single pair, single candle. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
  • Kalshi: 60 separate Yes/No markets, each triggered independently if CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average exceeds a specific threshold ranging from $27.9999 to $101.9999. Index-based, not exchange-based. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Jun 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the SOL/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the simple average of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI over the 60 seconds immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on June 14, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold starting at $28 and incrementing by $1 up to $102. An outcome resolves to Yes if the averaged price exceeds its threshold. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data for SOL.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect what traders are willing to stake on future price direction, often diverging from current spot prices because they embed forward-looking sentiment, volatility expectations, and tail-risk premiums. Unlike passive spot prices, these odds update continuously as new information arrives and positions shift. A high probability for "up" doesn't mean the spot price is rising now—it means the market collectively expects upside by resolution. Comparing this market's odds to technical levels, on-chain metrics, and macro catalysts can reveal whether traders are pricing in information you haven't yet considered.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different regulatory frameworks, fee structures, and user bases, which can create temporary pricing gaps on the same event. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Liquidity depth, settlement rules, and the timing of order flow also vary between venues, meaning one platform may react faster to breaking news than the other. These differences create arbitrage opportunities for traders who monitor both simultaneously. Over time, as information spreads and smart money exploits mispricings, the odds typically converge—but windows of divergence can persist for hours or days.

Major catalysts include Solana network upgrades, validator performance announcements, regulatory developments affecting crypto broadly, macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite, and competing blockchain launches or partnerships. On-chain metrics like transaction volume and active addresses can signal user adoption trends. Broader Bitcoin and Ethereum price action often sets the tone for altcoins, including SOL. Whale wallet movements, exchange inflows/outflows, and developer activity on GitHub are also watched closely. Any unexpected security incidents or ecosystem news can trigger sharp repricing in either direction.