TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Solana Up or Down - July 7, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Will Solana be up on July 7 at 8:00PM ET?

Volume:
$93,726

$81 or above

 - Kalshi

$81 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 8, 2026

Closed: Jul 7, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$81 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$21,211
N/A
N/A
$5,406
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$80 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,180
N/A
N/A
$2,882
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$79 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,644
N/A
N/A
$4,364
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$76 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$217
N/A
N/A
$217
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$77 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$40
N/A
N/A
$40
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$78 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$24
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$82 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$30,455
N/A
N/A
$11,102
Settled
No
kalshi

$83 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,508
N/A
N/A
$7,415
Settled
No
kalshi

$84 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,071
N/A
N/A
$4,779
Settled
No
polymarket

Solana Up or Down - July 7, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,224
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$85 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$981
N/A
N/A
$601
Settled
No
kalshi

$86 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$269
N/A
N/A
$147
Settled
No
kalshi

$87 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$257
N/A
N/A
$257
Settled
No
kalshi

$88 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$207
N/A
N/A
$207
Settled
No
kalshi

$89 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$182
N/A
N/A
$182
Settled
No
kalshi

$90 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$60
N/A
N/A
$60
Settled
No
kalshi

$91 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$60
N/A
N/A
$60
Settled
No
kalshi

$92 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$60
N/A
N/A
$60
Settled
No
kalshi

$100 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$41
N/A
N/A
$41
Settled
No
kalshi

$93 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$35
N/A
N/A
$35
Settled
No
kalshi

$43 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$44 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$45 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$46 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$47 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 76

Description

This event group tracks whether Solana's price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on July 7, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Kalshi offers 75 binary contracts at $1 increments from $42.99 to $116.99, while Polymarket offers a single binary Up/Down contract. Both markets measure price change over the same time window but use different data sources and resolution mechanics.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket measure Solana price movement using different time windows, data sources, and resolution mechanics. Kalshi locks to a single 5 PM EDT benchmark from CF Benchmarks; Polymarket compares opening (4 PM ET) to closing (8 PM ET) prices from Chainlink. A price move that satisfies one market's criteria may not satisfy the other.Hero tip: Do not treat Kalshi and Polymarket as perfect hedges. Kalshi's 5 PM EDT snapshot is independent of Polymarket's 4 PM–8 PM directional comparison. Monitor both data sources separately: CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI for Kalshi; Chainlink SOL/USD for Polymarket. A Kalshi contract can resolve Yes while Polymarket resolves Down if price rises into the 5 PM window but falls below the 4 PM open by 8 PM.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 75 binary contracts indexed by price level ($42.99–$116.99). Each resolves Yes if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds its threshold. Resolution is locked to a single intraday snapshot at 5 PM EDT. Key Quote: 'the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Jul 7, 2026.'
  • Polymarket: Single binary contract (Up/Down). Resolves Up if Chainlink SOL/USD price at 8:00 PM ET is greater than or equal to the price at 4:00 PM ET; otherwise Down. Resolution measures directional change across the full 4-hour window. Key Quote: 'Solana price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Solana price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream SOL/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the simple average of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI over the 60 seconds immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on July 7, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution to Yes if the average price exceeds that threshold at exactly the specified time. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data aggregated from major cryptocurrency exchanges.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect trader conviction about directional movement, not absolute price targets. When this market shows high odds for an up move, it signals that participants expect bullish momentum during the four-hour session, though the magnitude remains uncertain. Conversely, elevated down odds suggest bearish positioning. These probabilities often diverge from spot price momentum because they incorporate forward-looking sentiment, funding rates, and macro catalysts. Comparing the odds across platforms reveals whether consensus is strong or fragmented—a tight spread indicates agreement, while wide divergence suggests uncertainty or information asymmetry between trader bases.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different market-making rules, user bases, and liquidity conditions. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi's regulatory framework and order-book structure may attract institutional traders focused on precise risk management, while Polymarket's design often draws retail speculation and higher volatility. Funding availability, regional access, and fee structures also shape where traders concentrate capital. Additionally, each platform's resolution methodology and historical accuracy perception can influence how participants price tail risk. These structural differences mean identical events can trade at meaningfully different odds, creating arbitrage opportunities for alert traders monitoring both venues simultaneously.

Macro catalysts—Federal Reserve commentary, inflation data, or risk-asset sentiment shifts—often drive crypto volatility and could swing this market sharply. Solana-specific developments, such as network upgrades, validator performance issues, or major ecosystem announcements, may trigger directional conviction. Bitcoin and Ethereum moves frequently lead altcoin momentum, so tracking the two largest cryptocurrencies is essential. Additionally, liquidation cascades, options expiry events, or sudden whale transactions can create intraday momentum. Geopolitical news, regulatory headlines, and traditional market opens (especially if they coincide with the trading window) may inject fresh volatility. Monitoring on-chain metrics, funding rates, and social sentiment in the hours before the window opens helps traders anticipate positioning shifts.