TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Solana Up or Down - April 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Volume:
$12,247
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Solana's price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on April 2, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Kalshi offers 75 binary contracts tied to specific price thresholds measured via CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI at 5 PM EDT, while Polymarket offers a single binary contract comparing end-of-window price to start-of-window price using Chainlink's SOL/USD data stream.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two distinct measurement methodologies and data sources create settlement value mismatch. Kalshi uses a single 60-second CF Benchmarks snapshot at 5 PM EDT against fixed thresholds; Polymarket compares Chainlink prices at window start (4:00 PM) versus window end (8:00 PM).Hero Tip:
Kalshi and Polymarket are measuring different things: Kalshi captures a single moment (5 PM), while Polymarket measures directional change over the full 4-hour period. A price spike at 5 PM could trigger Kalshi thresholds but reverse by 8 PM, causing Polymarket to resolve Down. Cross-platform arbitrage risk is high.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: 75 binary contracts, each tied to a specific price threshold. Resolution occurs at 5 PM EDT based on the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI immediately before 5 PM EDT. Thresholds range from $42.9999 to $116.9999. Key Quote: If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Polymarket: Single binary contract comparing Solana price at end of window (8:00 PM ET) to start of window (4:00 PM ET) using Chainlink SOL/USD data stream. Resolves Up if end price >= start price, otherwise Down. Key Quote: This market will resolve to Up if the Solana price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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