TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 6PM ET
Volume:
$28,433
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Solana (SOL) price moves up or down on April 12, 2026 at a specified time. Polymarket uses a 1-hour candle close vs. open comparison on Binance SOL/USDT, while Kalshi uses a 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI index at 5 PM EDT with 60 discrete price thresholds.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different data sources (Binance SOL/USDT vs. CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI), different time windows (1-hour candle vs. 60-second average), different timestamps (6 PM ET vs. 5 PM EDT), and different resolution structures (binary Up/Down vs. 60 price-level thresholds). These markets cannot be directly reconciled.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets with independent resolution paths. Polymarket resolves on Binance candle mechanics; Kalshi resolves on CF Benchmarks index data. Confirm your exchange and data source before taking a position. A price move that resolves Up on Polymarket may not trigger any specific Kalshi threshold, and vice versa.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional market: resolves Up if SOL/USDT 1-hour candle close >= open on Binance for the candle beginning at 6 PM ET on April 12, 2026. Otherwise resolves Down. Single resolution source: Binance SOL/USDT pair, 1-hour chart.
- Kalshi: 60 discrete price-level markets: each resolves Yes if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT on April 12, 2026 exceeds a specific threshold ($42.9999 through $116.9999 in $1 increments). Otherwise resolves No. Single resolution source: CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI index.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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