TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 5PM ET
Volume:
$36,777
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Solana's price moves up or down at a specific moment on April 10, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average at the exact timestamp. Both platforms are attempting to capture the same directional price movement but employ fundamentally different data sources, measurement windows, and settlement methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi employ incompatible data sources (Binance SOL/USDT vs CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI), different measurement windows (1-hour candle vs 60-second average), and distinct outcome structures (binary Up/Down vs 50-tier threshold ladder). Identical price movement at 5 PM ET could produce conflicting resolutions across platforms.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets with independent settlement logic. Polymarket resolves on Binance candle close >= open (binary). Kalshi resolves on whether CF Benchmarks 60-second average exceeds any of 50 price thresholds. Price data from different exchanges and time windows will not perfectly correlate. Confirm your position is sized and hedged for the specific platform's resolution source.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional market. Resolves Up if SOL/USDT close price >= open price for the 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM ET on April 10, 2026. Resolves Down otherwise. Data source: Binance SOL/USDT pair, 1-hour candle. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: 50-tier threshold ladder market. Resolves Yes if CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second simple average (measured in the 60 seconds prior to 5 PM EDT on April 10, 2026) exceeds any of the following thresholds: $49.99, $50.99, $51.99, $52.99, $53.99, $54.99, $55.99, $56.99, $57.99, $58.99, $59.99, $60.99, $61.99, $62.99, $63.99, $64.99, $65.99, $66.99, $67.99, $68.99, $69.99, $70.99, $71.99, $72.99, $73.99, $74.99, $75.99, $76.99, $77.99, $78.99, $79.99, $80.99, $81.99, $82.99, $83.99, $84.99, $85.99, $86.99, $87.99, $88.99, $89.99, $90.99, $91.99, $92.99, $93.99, $94.99, $95.99, $96.99, $97.99, $98.99. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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