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$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Solana price on June 16?
kalshi
polymarket

Solana price on June 16?

Volume:
$154,352

$70 or above

 - Kalshi

$70 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 16, 2026

Closed: Jun 15, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$70 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,483
N/A
N/A
$2,399
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$73 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,780
N/A
N/A
$1,560
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$72 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,609
N/A
N/A
$2,020
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$74 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,462
N/A
N/A
$2,789
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$71 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,963
N/A
N/A
$1,910
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$68 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,115
N/A
N/A
$1,740
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$69 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,063
N/A
N/A
$1,566
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$67 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,395
N/A
N/A
$2,387
Settled
Yes
polymarket

70-80

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,241
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$66 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,985
N/A
N/A
$1,925
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$64 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$905
N/A
N/A
$905
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$767
N/A
N/A
$767
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$65 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$644
N/A
N/A
$644
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$627
N/A
N/A
$627
Settled
Yes
polymarket

90-100

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$52,302
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$75 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,835
N/A
N/A
$4,335
Settled
No
polymarket

60-70

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,671
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$76 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,922
N/A
N/A
$5,457
Settled
No
polymarket

50-60

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,402
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

100-110

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,017
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<20

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,577
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$78 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,170
N/A
N/A
$1,492
Settled
No
kalshi

$79 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,155
N/A
N/A
$2,155
Settled
No
kalshi

$77 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,081
N/A
N/A
$1,123
Settled
No
polymarket

80-90

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,675
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 86

Description

This event group tracks the USD price of Solana (SOL) on June 16, 2026, across two prediction platforms using different data sources and timing windows. Polymarket uses Binance SOL/USDT closing price at noon ET on June 16, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average at 5 PM EDT on June 15. Both platforms offer granular price bracket markets to allow traders to express precise price predictions.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi resolve on different dates and times using different price sources (Binance spot vs. CF Benchmarks RTI index), creating settlement value mismatch risk.Hero tip: Kalshi settles 19 hours before Polymarket. Use Kalshi as an early signal for SOL price direction, but do not assume Polymarket will follow the same outcome. Monitor both Binance and CF Benchmarks feeds separately. If SOL is volatile, basis risk between the two platforms could be significant.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves on June 16, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET using Binance SOL/USDT 1-minute candle close price. Offers 12 binary bracket markets ($0-20, $20-30, $30-40, $40-50, $50-60, $60-70, $70-80, $80-90, $90-100, $100-110, >$110). Tie-breaking rule: if price falls exactly between brackets, resolves to higher range.
  • Kalshi: Resolves on June 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT using CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second simple average. Offers 73 binary yes/no markets with thresholds ranging from $27.9999 to $101.9999 in increments of $1-2. All markets resolve Yes if price exceeds threshold, No otherwise.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the simple average of the CF Benchmarks' Solana-Dollar Real Time Index (SOLUSD_RTI) calculated from 60 seconds of data collected before 5 PM EDT on June 15, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution occurring if the averaged price exceeds the designated strike level at exactly the specified time. If data is incomplete or unavailable at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data aggregated from major cryptocurrency exchanges.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds encode collective trader beliefs about future spot prices, but they differ from live exchange rates in important ways. These markets reflect probabilistic forecasts rather than current trading activity, often incorporating longer time horizons and tail-risk scenarios that spot markets may underweight. Comparing implied odds to today's price reveals whether traders expect appreciation, depreciation, or consolidation, making prediction markets a complementary signal to technical analysis and on-chain metrics.

Polymarket and Kalshi may price this market differently due to variations in liquidity, trader composition, contract design, and fee structures. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket's AMM-based mechanism and global audience can produce different equilibria than Kalshi's order-book model and US-focused regulatory framework. Additionally, subtle differences in outcome definitions—such as exact settlement timestamps or price feeds—can create arbitrage opportunities that take time to resolve as traders move capital between platforms.

Major catalysts include Solana network developments, regulatory announcements affecting crypto broadly, macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite, and Bitcoin or Ethereum price movements that often correlate with altcoin sentiment. On-chain metrics such as active addresses, transaction volume, and validator participation can also influence trader positioning. Additionally, broader market events—Fed policy, geopolitical tensions, or competing blockchain launches—may reshape expectations for SOL's mid-term trajectory and drive significant repricing before settlement.