TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Solana price on June 12?
kalshi
polymarket

Solana price on June 12?

Volume:
$48,826

60-70

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 12, 2026

Closed: Jun 12, 12:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

60-70

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,215
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61 to 61.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

70-80

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,254
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$71 to 71.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

>110

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,400
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$89 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50-60

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,126
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$49 to 49.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<20

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,386
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40-50

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,860
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

90-100

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,713
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

80-90

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,685
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$82 to 82.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30-40

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$635
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$40.9999 or below

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

100-110

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$592
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20-30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$318
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$67 to 67.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$240
N/A
N/A
$237
Settled
No
kalshi

$68 to 68.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$206
N/A
N/A
$196
Settled
No
kalshi

$63 to 63.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$191
N/A
N/A
$191
Settled
No
kalshi

$69 to 69.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$41 to 41.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$42 to 42.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$43 to 43.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$44 to 44.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This event group tracks the price of Solana (SOL) on June 12, 2026, across two prediction platforms using different data sources, timing windows, and price brackets. Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI at 5 PM EDT with 50 specific $1-wide price bands, while Polymarket uses Binance SOL/USDT at noon ET with 11 broader $10-wide price ranges.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two independent prediction markets on the same underlying asset (Solana price on June 12) use different data sources (CF Benchmarks vs Binance), different observation times (5 PM EDT vs noon ET), and incompatible bracket architectures (49 overlapping $1 bands vs 11 non-overlapping $10 bands). This creates settlement value mismatch and prevents direct cross-platform hedging.Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets with different risk profiles. Kalshi's dense $1-wide brackets mean the market will almost certainly resolve Yes regardless of actual price (only prices below $41 or between $61-$68.9999 or between $84-$88.9999 resolve No). Polymarket offers genuine binary outcomes with $10 brackets. If you believe SOL will trade in a specific $10 range at noon ET, use Polymarket. If you want exposure to intraday volatility and price discovery by 5 PM EDT, use Kalshi—but expect very high Yes probability.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Observation time: 5 PM EDT on June 12, 2026. Data source: CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI (60-second simple average before 5 PM EDT). Resolution logic: 50 separate conditions, each specifying a $1-wide price bracket. Conditions cover $41-$89.9999 in $1 increments (49 brackets), plus below $41 and above $88.9999. ALL conditions resolve to Yes. Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between [X]-[X.9999]... then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates near-universal Yes resolution unless price lands in specific gaps.
  • Polymarket: Observation time: Noon ET (12:00 PM) on June 12, 2026. Data source: Binance SOL/USDT 1-minute candle Close price. Resolution logic: 11 non-overlapping $10-wide brackets ($20-$30, $30-$40, $40-$50, $50-$60, $60-$70, $70-$80, $80-$90, $90-$100, $100-$110) plus extremes (<$20, >$110). Each bracket is a separate Yes/No market. Tie-breaking rule: 'If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.' Key quote: 'This market will resolve according to the final Close price of the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on June 12, 2026. The official price is calculated from these 60 RTI data points averaged together. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price range, with the market resolving to the outcome matching where the final averaged price falls. CF Benchmarks' RTI is the authoritative price source, distinct from other cryptocurrency price data sources like Google or Coinbase.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds embed forward-looking expectations that often diverge from current spot prices. Markets price in volatility, macroeconomic catalysts, and regulatory shifts over the months leading to June 12. If traders expect Solana to appreciate, odds will skew toward higher price brackets; if bearish sentiment dominates, lower ranges gain probability mass. The gap between today's spot and the median outcome implied by odds reflects collective uncertainty and time-value. Comparing these two signals helps identify whether markets are pricing in bullish momentum, consolidation, or downside risk for SOL by mid-June 2026.

Solana's price by June 12 will respond to network upgrades, validator health metrics, and ecosystem adoption milestones. Regulatory announcements affecting crypto broadly, or Solana specifically, can trigger sharp moves. Macroeconomic shifts—interest rate decisions, inflation data, risk-on sentiment—ripple through all digital assets. Competition from other Layer 1 blockchains and changes in developer activity on Solana influence long-term positioning. Major partnerships, security incidents, or technical failures would also reshape expectations. Traders monitor on-chain metrics, TVL trends, and institutional inflows as leading indicators of price direction heading into the June 12 settlement date.