TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Solana price on July 9?
polymarket
kalshi

Solana price on July 9?

Volume:
$15,967

70-80

 - Polymarket

70-80 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 9, 2026

Closed: Jul 9, 12:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

70-80

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,012
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$78 to 78.9999

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$287
N/A
N/A
$223
Settled
Yes
polymarket

60-70

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,500
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

80-90

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,537
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

90-100

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$399
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<40

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$342
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$79 to 79.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$308
N/A
N/A
$307
Settled
No
polymarket

>130

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$303
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$77 to 77.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$234
N/A
N/A
$125
Settled
No
kalshi

$74 to 74.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$212
N/A
N/A
$206
Settled
No
polymarket

40-50

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$125
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50-60

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$125
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

100-110

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$120
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

120-130

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$120
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

110-120

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$120
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$76 to 76.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$107
N/A
N/A
$106
Settled
No
kalshi

$80 to 80.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

$72 to 72.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16
N/A
N/A
$16
Settled
No
kalshi

$38.9999 or below

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$39 to 39.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$40 to 40.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$41 to 41.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$42 to 42.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$43 to 43.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$44 to 44.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 86

Description

This event group measures the price of Solana (SOL) on July 9, 2026, across multiple price brackets. Polymarket uses Binance SOL/USDT closing price at 12:00 PM ET (noon), while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average at 5:00 PM EDT. Both platforms offer granular price range markets, but they differ in data source, timing, and methodology.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct settlement methodologies: Polymarket resolves on Binance SOL/USDT close at 12:00 PM ET, while Kalshi resolves on CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average at 5:00 PM EDT. The 5-hour time gap and different data sources create independent price discovery points.Hero tip: Treat these as two separate markets with independent outcomes. The Solana price at noon ET may differ significantly from the price at 5 PM ET on the same day. Kalshi's use of a benchmark index (CF Benchmarks) rather than a spot exchange (Binance) may also produce different values even at the same time. Confirm your preferred data source before committing capital.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves on Binance SOL/USDT 1-minute candle close price at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on July 9. Single data point from a centralized exchange. Quote: 'This market will resolve according to the final Close price of the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title.'
  • Kalshi: Resolves on CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second simple average calculated before 5:00 PM EDT on July 9. Uses a benchmark index provider rather than spot exchange. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is [price range] at 5 PM EDT on Jul 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the simple average of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI over 60 seconds immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on July 9, 2026. Each outcome represents a specific price range, and exactly one outcome resolves to Yes based on where the average price falls. If data is incomplete or unavailable at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data for SOL.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect real-money commitments from traders who profit only if their forecast proves correct, making them distinct from casual sentiment or analyst targets. Unlike spot prices, which respond to immediate supply and demand, these odds embed forward-looking expectations about Solana's value at a specific future date. Traders on this market are essentially betting on where SOL will settle, so the odds reveal where informed participants believe the price is headed. The gap between current spot price and the implied price from market odds can signal whether traders expect appreciation, depreciation, or consolidation ahead.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different market designs, fee structures, and user bases, which can create pricing divergence even when tracking the same event. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Liquidity varies between platforms—one may attract more active traders in crypto markets, while the other draws a different demographic. Settlement rules, minimum order sizes, and withdrawal timelines also differ, affecting how traders value positions. Additionally, each platform's order book depth and spread influence how quickly prices adjust to new information. Comparing odds across both venues helps identify mispricings and reveals where the broader prediction market community leans most heavily.

Major catalysts for Solana's price include network upgrades, validator performance metrics, ecosystem developments, and shifts in broader crypto market sentiment. Regulatory announcements affecting Solana or the crypto sector generally can trigger sharp repricing. Macroeconomic events—interest rate decisions, inflation data, or risk-on/risk-off cycles—often ripple through digital assets. Competition from other layer-one blockchains and changes in developer activity on Solana also influence trader expectations. Large liquidations, exchange inflows or outflows, and whale transactions can create volatility. Monitoring on-chain metrics, developer updates, and market news helps traders stay informed as this market approaches resolution.