TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Solana price on July 8?
polymarket
kalshi

Solana price on July 8?

Volume:
$160,912

$76 or above

 - Kalshi

$76 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 8, 2026

Closed: Jul 8, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$76 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$22,580
N/A
N/A
$12,779
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$77 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$22,450
N/A
N/A
$4,372
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$75 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,993
N/A
N/A
$4,833
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$74 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,534
N/A
N/A
$1,440
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$73 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,381
N/A
N/A
$1,381
Settled
Yes
polymarket

70-80

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$551
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$78 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$31,258
N/A
N/A
$11,712
Settled
No
kalshi

$79 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$21,895
N/A
N/A
$6,147
Settled
No
kalshi

$80 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,036
N/A
N/A
$4,579
Settled
No
kalshi

$83 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,361
N/A
N/A
$5,208
Settled
No
kalshi

$81 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,464
N/A
N/A
$4,985
Settled
No
kalshi

$82 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,352
N/A
N/A
$3,901
Settled
No
polymarket

90-100

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,436
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

80-90

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,140
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

60-70

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$943
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$865
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40-50

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$717
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

>120

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$627
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

100-110

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$555
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30-40

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$460
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$84 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$408
N/A
N/A
$387
Settled
No
polymarket

50-60

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$406
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

110-120

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$294
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$86 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$90
N/A
N/A
$90
Settled
No
kalshi

$85 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$88
N/A
N/A
$88
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 86

Description

This event group tracks the price of Solana (SOL) on July 8, 2026, across two major prediction platforms using different price feeds and observation times. Polymarket uses Binance SOL/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon), while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI at 5:00 PM ET. Both platforms offer granular price bracket markets to allow traders to bet on specific price ranges.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct price feeds (Binance spot vs CF Benchmarks index) and two different observation times (12:00 PM ET vs 5:00 PM ET) create settlement value mismatch. Solana's price can move materially between these windows, causing the same event date to resolve to different outcomes on each platform.Hero tip: Do not assume Polymarket and Kalshi will resolve to the same outcome. Polymarket captures noon price; Kalshi captures 5 PM price. If you hold positions on both platforms, track both feeds separately and expect potential divergence. Kalshi's threshold-based structure (>$X.9999) differs from Polymarket's bracket ranges, so direct comparison requires careful mapping.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves using Binance SOL/USDT 1-minute candle close at 12:00 PM ET. Offers 12 mutually exclusive bracket markets ($30-$40, $40-$50, $50-$60, $60-$70, $70-$80, $80-$90, $90-$100, $100-$110, $110-$120, >$120, <$30, and boundary tie-break favoring higher bracket). Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with 1m candles.
  • Kalshi: Resolves using CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI 60-second simple average at 5:00 PM EDT. Offers 75 binary YES/NO markets for price thresholds from $42.9999 to $116.9999 (increments of $1.00). Each market resolves YES if average is above the stated threshold. No explicit tie-breaking rule provided.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the simple average of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI over a 60-second window immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on July 8, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution occurring only if the averaged price exceeds the stated criterion at exactly the specified time and date. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing aggregated from major cryptocurrency exchanges.

Frequently asked questions

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Contract design, liquidity depth, and user demographics vary between venues. Polymarket may attract retail traders with different risk appetites, while Kalshi draws institutional participants or users with distinct information sets. Fee structures, minimum bet sizes, and UI design also influence order flow and price discovery. Additionally, each platform's rules and settlement mechanics can create subtle incentives that shift odds. Monitoring both sides helps you understand whether price gaps reflect genuine disagreement or temporary inefficiencies worth exploiting.

Macroeconomic announcements—interest rate decisions, inflation data, or risk-on sentiment shifts—typically drive crypto volatility and could reshape Solana price expectations. Network upgrades, validator performance issues, or ecosystem developments specific to Solana may also influence trader positioning. Regulatory news affecting crypto broadly, or major exchange listings or delistings, could trigger rapid repricing. Additionally, Bitcoin and Ethereum movements often drag altcoins along, so monitoring broader market structure is essential. Watch for whale transactions, developer activity, and on-chain metrics that signal changing fundamentals.