TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Solana price on July 11?
kalshi
polymarket

Solana price on July 11?

Volume:
$70,409

$78 or above

 - Kalshi

$78 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$78 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,184
N/A
N/A
$2,344
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$77 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,109
N/A
N/A
$3,714
Settled
Yes
polymarket

70-80

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,914
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$76 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,820
N/A
N/A
$2,789
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$75 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$282
N/A
N/A
$281
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$38 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$94
N/A
N/A
$94
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$54 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$79 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25,051
N/A
N/A
$14,104
Settled
No
kalshi

$80 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,525
N/A
N/A
$6,131
Settled
No
polymarket

80-90

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,359
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

60-70

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,691
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

100-110

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,275
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$81 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,099
N/A
N/A
$1,099
Settled
No
polymarket

90-100

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$620
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$82 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$472
N/A
N/A
$472
Settled
No
polymarket

120-130

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$417
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40-50

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$357
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<40

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$305
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50-60

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$280
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

110-120

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$280
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

>130

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$275
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$39 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$40 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$41 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$42 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 86

Description

This event group tracks the price of Solana (SOL) on July 11, 2026, across multiple price brackets. Polymarket offers binary yes/no markets for ten price ranges ($40, $40-50, $50-60, etc. up to $130+), while Kalshi provides 75 granular binary markets testing whether the CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI average exceeds specific thresholds ($37.9999 through $111.9999). Both platforms aim to capture the same underlying asset price but use different data sources, observation times, and methodologies.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Settlement Value Mismatch: Polymarket resolves using Binance SOL/USDT close at 12:00 PM ET, while Kalshi resolves using CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average at 5:00 PM EDT. Different data sources, different times (5-hour gap), and different calculation methods (single candle close vs. 60-second average) create potential for conflicting outcomes.Hero tip: Treat these as two separate price observations. Polymarket captures noon ET Binance spot; Kalshi captures 5 PM EDT CF Benchmarks average. SOL price can move significantly between noon and 5 PM. If you hold positions on both platforms, monitor both data feeds independently and do not assume cross-platform hedging will work perfectly. Consider the 5-hour time gap and potential intraday volatility.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves on Binance SOL/USDT 1-minute candle close at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on July 11. Uses single candle close price. Bracket logic: if price falls exactly between two ranges, resolves to the higher bracket. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve according to the final Close price of the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title.'
  • Kalshi: Resolves on CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second simple average before 5:00 PM EDT on July 11, 2026. Uses average of 60 consecutive seconds of data. Threshold logic: 75 binary markets test whether average is above $37.9999, $38.9999, ... $111.9999. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $37.9999 at 5 PM EDT on Jul 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the simple average of the CF Benchmarks' Solana-Dollar Real Time Index (SOLUSD_RTI) calculated from 60 seconds of data collected before 5 PM EDT on July 11, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution occurring only if the averaged price meets or exceeds that threshold at exactly the specified time and date. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data aggregated from major cryptocurrency exchanges.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds represent the collective probability assigned by traders risking real capital, often diverging from spot prices because they embed forward-looking sentiment and tail-risk hedging. While spot markets react to immediate supply and demand, this market reflects traders' beliefs about where Solana will actually trade by the resolution date. Prediction odds tend to be more stable than intraday spot swings, since participants are committing funds over a longer horizon. Comparing the two reveals whether the market is pricing in bullish momentum, bearish pressure, or consolidation relative to current levels.

Major catalysts include Solana network upgrades, validator performance announcements, regulatory developments affecting crypto broadly, macroeconomic shifts, and Bitcoin or Ethereum price movements. Developer activity and ecosystem funding rounds can signal long-term health and shift trader sentiment. Exchanges listing or delisting SOL, institutional adoption news, and changes to staking rewards also influence expectations. Market-wide risk-off events, Fed policy shifts, or competing L1 announcements may trigger rapid repricing. Monitoring on-chain metrics, social sentiment, and technical levels helps traders anticipate moves before they're reflected in odds.